Iran-US conflict escalates: Trump warns of 'not-so-nice' end, Vance demands enrichment cuts as oil blockade hits Iran economy
Iran dismisses US predictions of economic collapse amid escalating tensions
US President Donald Trump says Washington will soon decide whether to end the war with Iran "the nice way or the not-so-nice way," claiming Iran's military has been effectively neutralised and that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are back to pre-war levels. Vice President JD Vance says Tehran must make a significant cut to its nuclear enrichment capacity to secure a permanent ceasefire, though he admits Washington is unsure how much authority Iran's civilian leaders now hold after the country's top leadership was eliminated. Pressure on Iran's economy is mounting, with tanker data showing no crude loaded since August 25 under the US-led naval blockade, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to question what the newly appointed acting oil minister is managing. Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati has dismissed US predictions of an imminent economic collapse as "delusional," insisting Tehran has enough foreign currency reserves to secure basic necessities. Meanwhile, Qatar says mediation between the two sides continues, Oman has evacuated 10 crew from a vessel struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has restored its East-West Pipeline to 5.8 million barrels per day. Follow our live blog for the latest updates.
Oil prices rose Wednesday and stocks fell amid fresh concerns about Middle East supplies following a warning that Iran appeared to be stepping up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The retreat came as investors brushed off another record day on Wall Street where the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were boosted by a rush back into the AI trade that saw chip titan Nvidia push towards a $6 trillion market capitalisation.
Confidence has been given a boost this week as reports said that exports from the Middle East -- excluding Iran -- were pushing back towards pre-war levels.
However, both contracts rebounded Tuesday and rose in early Asian trade, as figures showed Tehran had increased strikes on tankers in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
The Saudi-led coalition battling Yemen's Houthis said Wednesday it had shot down a ballistic missile north of Riyadh.
"A ballistic missile launched by the terrorist Houthi militia north of Riyadh was intercepted and destroyed," the coalition's spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki wrote on X.
Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati dismissed US predictions claiming the Iranian economy would collapse in short order, calling the forecasts "delusional" and assuring the public that Tehran has sufficient foreign currency reserves to secure basic necessities.
Hemmati dismissed predictions by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that Iran's economy would "collapse within two weeks." Hemmati cited a proverb ("Chickens are counted at the end of autumn") to assert that Washington's economic predictions will not materialise, as per Shafaq News.
Trend News Agency also detailed Hemmati's statements outlining that after failing in military objectives, the US transitioned to an "economic war" targeting Iran's foreign exchange market and financial system, while affirming that the CBI retains legal mechanisms to stabilise the market.
Hemmati, alongside Supreme National Security Council Chairman Mohsen Rezaei, asserted that U.S. predictions on Iran's imminent economic collapse lack credibility.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly questioned the role of Iran’s newly appointed oil minister after tanker-tracking data showed that Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since late August, underscoring the impact of the US-led naval blockade on Tehran’s most vital revenue stream.
On October 6, Bessent posted on X: “Iran has a new oil minister. Considering Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since August 25th, what is the oil minister managing?”
The remark came hours after President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and appointed Hamid Bovard, head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), as acting minister.
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US President Donald Trump stated in a press exchange on October 6, 2026, that his "biggest problem" in dealing with the conflict with Tehran is that "nobody knows who the hell is running" Iran after successive tiers of Iranian leadership were eliminated.
Speaking to reporters before boarding Marine One at the White House, Trump remarked: "Their leaders are gone, their second group of leaders are gone, and the biggest problem I have is nobody knows who the hell is running the country."
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei pushed back on Trump's statements, asserting that Washington knows full well how Iran's decision-making structure works. Baghaei pushed the fault back onto Washington, citing "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from US officials".
US President Donald Trump stated during an address at an Anduril Industries event in Sparrows Point, Maryland, on October 6, 2026, that the United States must "finish up" the war with Iran, adding that Washington will soon decide whether to bring the conflict to an end the "nice way or the not-so-nice way."
Trump told attendees that the United States was doing "extremely well" against Iran and declared that its military capabilities had been effectively neutralised: "They have no military in sight. The whole place is shot. They were the bully of the Middle East, and they're not so much the bully anymore."
By giving a choice between the "nice way or the not-so-nice way," Trump implied an upcoming choice between a diplomatic settlement or an intensified military campaign aimed at forced resolution.
US Vice President JD Vance stated in an interview with journalists on October 7, 2026, that Iran must make a "meaningful" and "significant" reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy Washington's demands and bring an end to the ongoing conflict.
Vance emphasised that Washington remains open to a diplomatic agreement, but Iran must demonstrate concrete nuclear concessions — specifically scaling back its uranium enrichment infrastructure — to secure a permanent ceasefire.
Vance noted that while the US is engaged in backchannel discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Washington remains uncertain how much decision-making authority these civilian officials hold following the decapitation of Iran's top leadership.
US President Donald Trump claimed that millions of barrels of oil have moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days. Speaking to reporters before leaving for Maryland, he said shipments are now matching, and at times topping, the volumes seen before the war.
Trump also said Iran's oil minister has resigned, claiming the official admitted that Iran has no economy and no oil left.
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