Oil edges higher as markets weigh Iran tensions and fuel supply concerns

Highlights
The Trump administration has told Germany and France to immediately draw down their emergency diesel inventories to help ease soaring global fuel prices, warning that Washington could impose a targeted ban on U.S. diesel exports if European allies refuse, according to three people familiar with the discussions, Reuters reported.
The demand, delivered through diplomatic and energy channels this week, marks a sharp escalation in transatlantic tensions over energy policy as crude oil trades above $100 a barrel and US diesel prices hit record levels ahead of November’s midterm elections.
US officials have asked the EU to release roughly 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months, a volume that would represent more than 40% of the bloc’s current emergency oil and diesel stocks, according to a European source and calculations based on Eurostat data from May 2025.
EU member states and the European Commission will hold an emergency meeting Friday to discuss soaring diesel prices and a coordinated response.
The meeting comes after the US urged European allies to release strategic diesel reserves to ease supply disruptions. President Donald Trump has also raised the possibility of restricting US diesel exports.
EU officials warned an export ban could have “very dramatic consequences” for Europe’s economy, while France said it would seek balanced solutions.
US diesel prices have risen more than 70% since the start of the Iran war, reaching an average of $6.39 a gallon, according to AAA data.
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz accused Iran of violating its nuclear obligations by enriching uranium to 60%, saying the level has “no credible civilian purpose”.
He also accused Tehran of restricting access for IAEA inspectors and refusing demands to abandon uranium enrichment.
Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful and that enrichment is its right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Tehran has also accused the IAEA of politicisation.
At least one Iranian security personnel was killed when unidentified gunmen attacked a checkpoint near Rask, a city in Sistan-Baluchestan province on the border with Pakistan, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB reported.
The officer was killed as security forces repelled the attack, according to IRIB, citing the province’s deputy governor for security and law enforcement.
“Efforts to arrest the perpetrators of this crime are ongoing,” the official said, according to the broadcaster.
Authorities have not identified the attackers or provided further details about the incident.
Saudi Arabia’s air defence intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthi militia towards Khamis Mushait, the Saudi Civil Defence said.
Fragments from the intercepted missile fell in Khamis Mushait Governorate, causing limited material damage, Civil Defence said. No casualties were reported in the statement.
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Loud explosions were heard late on Thursday in the Yemeni capital Sanaa, which is controlled by pro-Iranian Houthi forces, an AFP correspondent said. The Saba agency, which is affiliated with the anti-government fighters, spoke of "Saudi aggression" on X.
AFP footage showed large plumes of smoke rising above the city. After several years of calm, Yemen plunged back into war in July, pitting the Houthi rebels against the government.
The Houthis, who hold Sanaa and Yemen's Red Sea coastline, have been pitted against the government, which is recognised by the international community and backed by Riyadh.
Oil prices climbed sharply on Friday (Oct. 2, 2026), with Brent crude reaching $102.30 a barrel and Murban crude rising to $109.40, as of 8:06 am Tokyo time. WTI crude was at $93.05. The rally, tracked by OilPrice, came as markets continued to assess disruption risks linked to the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz and regional shipping security.
The sharpest move was in Murban, the UAE's flagship crude grade and an important reference for Asian refiners. Its jump above Brent indicates that traders are assigning a higher risk premium to Middle Eastern supply, particularly barrels exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions.
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Forty-six sovereign states condemned Iran’s escalating use of the death penalty, saying it is being used “to instill fear, suppress dissent and deter peaceful expression and assembly.”
Liechtenstein delivered the joint statement by 46 sovereign states during the UN Human Rights Council's general debate in Geneva. It was backed by a cross-regional group that includes most of Western Europe plus Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Ukraine and others. The US is not listed among the signatories.
The US is dispatching roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines aboard a flotilla of warships to the Middle East, a major naval buildup that could bring three American aircraft carriers to the region by late October or November as President Donald Trump warns that renewed strikes against Iran remain possible.
The move, confirmed by US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations and reported by major US media outlets, marks one of the largest concentrations of US naval power in the Gulf and Arabian Sea since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
It comes as diplomatic efforts to end the eight-month-old US-Iran conflict have stalled, with Tehran and Washington trading accusations and threats even as both sides say they seek to avoid an all-out regional war.
Jerusalem: President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran may be linked to the FlyDubai copilot who tried to crash an Israel-bound plane as investigators worked to determine why the copilot stabbed the flight's captain, causing the plane to plummet before others on board landed it in Saudi Arabia.
Trump was asked by reporters at the White House whether he had been briefed about any links between the pilot behind the attack and Tehran. He said, "We're working on it right now."
"I would say the answer, based on what I'm hearing, is yes, but we're working on it right now," Trump said. He did not elaborate why he thinks Iran might be involved.
Asked if the US would retaliate against Tehran if it was behind the attack, Trump said, "Oh they'll be hit, very hard, don't worry."
"You just ask them," he added. "They know what happened. They'll be hit very hard."
His remarks come as diplomatic efforts to end the war appear to have stalled.
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Day 216: US sends 9,000 more troops, third carrier to Mid-East
Day 215: Iran says received US response to its proposal to end war
Day 214: Iran threatens strikes as it awaits US response to Hormuz plan
Day 213: Iran supreme leader says US will be forced out of Middle East
Day 212: Trump expects talks with Iran to resume in coming week
Day 211: US military activity surges around Strait of Hormuz