Abu Dhabi: The withdrawal of three Gulf envoys from Qatar has generated much speculation as to how the situation will turn out, culminating in two major analyses.
The two opposing views maintain that either Gulf diplomacy will succeed in stemming the tide of conflict, or that the crisis is prime for deteriorating further as time passes.
“Taking the Gulf Cooperation Council to a political abyss serves nobody’s interests. The peoples and leaders of the GCC member states should have a clear awareness of just how lethal a threat the abyss politics pose to everyone,” said Dr Yousuf Al Hassan, a leading Emirati political analyst.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have called back their ambassadors from Qatar on Wednesday, citing contravention with GCC accords as the reason for the move.
The three countries maintained the six GCC members had agreed not to support “anyone threatening the security and stability of the GCC whether as groups or individuals — via direct security work or through political influence, and not to support hostile media”.
The recalling of the countries’ envoys was “to protect their security and stability,” according to a statement issued by the three countries.
Dr Al Hassan stressed rebuilding bridges with Doha is likely to come to fruition as time passes with mediation by Kuwait and possibly Oman, and as the organisations the Qataris bet on decline and die away, he said, referring to the Muslim Brotherhood which Qatar purportedly supports.
“Naturally, we hope for the end of conflict with Doha because there is no complaisance with regards to resorting to sanctions against the Qatari regime,” Dr Al Hassan said.
His comments echoed those of Dr Abdullah Al Tamimi, who tweeted: “Iran is the only beneficiary of the dispute [with Qatar], for there will be no winner among the GCC countries.”
Dr Mohammad Al Hadla agreed and posted on his twitter account: “[The withdrawal of the envoys from Qatar] is an overdue but prudent move by far-sighted leaders. It’s an effective action against the Qatari leadership which opted to push the GCC into the abyss.”
However, Dr Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, a leading political analyst, said the unprecedented move by the three GCC members was made after their leaders ran out of patience towards Qatar’s policies supporting the Muslim Brotherhood movement and breaching the Gulf Cooperation Council’s policies and positions, particularly towards Egypt.
“Qatar could face sanctions clamped by the Gulf countries, including the closing of borders with Qatar, and airspace to it if Doha doesn’t stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood,” Dr Abdullah told Gulf News.
Dr Abdullah did not rule out the freezing of the relationship between the three GCC countries and Qatar.
He said leaders of the three Gulf countries believe that the Qatari Emir Shaikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani did not abide by the agreement he signed in a November summit in Riyadh in the presence of the Emir of Kuwait Shaikh Sabah Al Ahmad three months ago to stop the use of the Qatari soil in actions that harm the interests of the Gulf countries.
Dr Abdullah noted that Saudi Arabia would lead any such sanctions against Qatar, citing Saudi accusation of Doha of supporting Al Houthi rebels in Yemen with money and weapons through one of the Qatari ruling family, as well as supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in the Kingdom.
Dr Ebtisam Al Kitbi, Chairperson of the Emirates Policy Centre, agreed and said the GCC countries made the move after they exhausted all means to bring Qatar back into the GCC’s fold.
“It seems that the Qataris are not aware that the Muslim Brotherhood movement is over. Neither Qatar, nor its allies, would be able to turn back time,” Dr Ebtisam said.
Dr Ebtisam added that neither Turkey, nor the Muslim Brotherhood would do any good to Doha. “Only sisterly Gulf countries are the real supporters of Qatar at good and bad times. Even the United States would not prefer Qatar to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries,” Dr Ebtisam said.
Ali Jasem, a veteran member of the Federal National Council, agreed sanctions against Qatar would be an option down the line, because “there is no compromise when it comes to the Gulf security and stability.”
Mohammad Al Marar, a UAE citizen, went all the way to calling for military action against Qatar. “It is not enough to call back our envoys from Doha, we [the GCC members] should launch a military strike against Qatar to teach it a lesson about its actual size and standing,” he said.
Suggesting another difficult action against Qatar, Khalifa Mohammad tweeted: “Should Qatar pursue its schemes [against security of GCC countries], it will be thrown out of the GCC.”
His sentiments were echoed by Hamdan Al Shamsi, who expressed the hope that “the next step will be driving Qatar away from the GCC.”
