Who will decide the next US president?

Dubai: In one of the closest contests in modern American history, US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are making closing arguments before the November 5 election.

And in the handful of critical states, there is little to separate the two contestants.

Under the US Constitution, America’s founding fathers established that each of the 50 states would hold its own vote for president.

Under the complex Electoral College system, each state has a certain number of “electors,” based on population. Most states have a winner-take-all system that awards all electors to whoever wins the popular vote.

With candidates needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win, elections tend to be decided in the hotly contested “swing states” with a history of alternating between Republican and Democratic candidates.

There are 538 electoral votes. The number is equal to the total voting membership of the US Congress – 435 representatives plus 100 Senators plus 3 from the District of Columbia. The target to win the presidency is 270 electoral votes, or one more than half the Electoral College votes.

Technically, Americans cast votes for electors, not the candidates themselves. Electors are typically party loyalists who pledge to support the candidate who gets the most votes in their state. Each elector represents one vote in the Electoral College.

Each state gets a particular number of electors based on its population size. For example, California has 54 electoral votes. If a candidate wins in California, he/she gets all 54 Electoral College votes, and if a candidate loses, he/she gets none. In short, the winner takes all.

This is why presidential candidates want to win states with many Electoral College votes. The six states with the most electors are California (54), Texas (40), New York (28), Florida (30), Illinois (19), and Pennsylvania (19).

On the other hand, sparsely populated Alaska, Delaware, Vermont and Wyoming have only three electors each.

Certain states have a long history of voting for a particular party. These are known as safe states. For example, in four election cycles, in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008, Democrats could count on states like Oregon, Maryland, Michigan and Massachusetts, whereas the Republicans could count on states like Mississippi, Alabama, Kansas and Idaho.

States that are teetering between the Republican and Democratic parties are called swing or battleground states.

This time, seven swing states are likely to decide the winner – Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Every one of these states is a toss-up within the margin of error. Here’s a look at why these states are so important for the 2024 polls.

Pennsylvania was once reliably Democratic, but not anymore.

Both Trump and Kamala Harris have campaigned vigorously in Pennsylvania, where they held their sole presidential debate. Following a July rally in the state where he survived an assassination attempt, Trump is focusing on appealing to rural white voters, expressing concerns about the impact of migrants on small towns. Meanwhile, Harris is promoting recent infrastructure achievements and, during a visit to Pittsburgh, proposed a $100 billion investment in manufacturing — an issue that resonates strongly with local residents.

Trump flipped Michigan, a state that had been a Democratic stronghold, during his 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton. Biden reclaimed it for the Democrats in 2020, thanks to strong support from unionised workers and a sizeable Black community. However, this time, Harris faces the risk of alienating the 200,000-strong Arab-American community, which has criticised Biden — and by extension her — over their handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.

Arizona was one of the closest races in 2020, with Biden winning by just 10,457 votes. Trump is counting on voter frustrations with the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy to help swing the state — bordering Mexico — back to him. In September, Harris visited the Arizona border, pledging to strengthen immigration enforcement and revive last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she accused Trump of sabotaging for political gain.

Clinton lost Wisconsin after largely bypassing it during her 2016 campaign. Unlike that year, however, Biden made the state a priority, flipping Clinton’s 23,000-vote deficit into a 21,000-vote victory for Democrats. Trump sees Wisconsin as within reach, underscored by his party’s choice to hold its summer national convention there. While Trump initially led against Biden, Harris has since made the race a close contest.

Nevada, with its 3.1 million residents, hasn’t voted Republican since 2004. Energised by Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters, conservatives believe they have a shot at changing that. Trump initially held a strong lead over Biden, but since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris has closed the gap, focusing on her economic plans to support small businesses and tackle inflation. In Nevada, where Las Vegas and its hospitality-driven economy hold sway, Harris’s approach has resonated.