Donald Trump and his allies are telling supporters that they're on pace for a runaway victory barring fraud "- setting the stage for outrage and legal challenges if the election doesn't break in favor of Republicans.
The Republican nominee's efforts have ramped up in rally speeches since early voting began. By conflating polls and early-voting data, Trump is painting a reality for his faithful where he's got a clear lead and is on track for a resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris that only malfeasance can derail.
He's also sowing doubt in the sanctity of the process - amplifying complaints about irregularities in Pennsylvania.
"We're leading now in all the polls," he said during a rally Monday in Atlanta, imploring his supporters to make the vote "too big to rig." On Wednesday in North Carolina, Trump told a rally that he's enjoying more enthusiasm this cycle than during his 2016 or 2020 runs, and that he "can't believe it's a close race."
In reality, most polls have the candidates essentially tied, with some models showing a slight Trump advantage. Electoral fraud cases are exceedingly rare and don't tip the balance. But Trump's drumbeat of overly rosy projections and warnings about the electoral system set the stage for dispute of the results in the event of a Harris win.
The former president has repeatedly declined to say without qualification whether he'll accept the results of this election, and he often denies he lost his previous White House bid in 2020. He faces criminal charges in a federal court and in Georgia alleging he interfered with that election's results.
"A race that is tied doesn't have a frontrunner," said Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report. "Polling is not, never was and never will be precise enough to pinpoint a leader when it is fundamentally tied. All swing states are well within the margin of error."
Political leaders have long given optimistic projections of victory to rally supporters, with Democrats and Republicans alike regularly pledging what they'd do with a mandate. "Make no mistake: We will win," Harris said at a North Carolina rally on Wednesday.
But Trump goes further, stoking inflated expectations around the data and celebrating a lead that doesn't exist in public polls, with allies echoing the bullish calls.
"He's going to win," said Jim Jordan, an Ohio congressman who is among Trump's staunchest supporters. "The polls show he's winning in the national polls, he's winning in the swing states, and all the early voting "- every data point is positive for the president. That's what he's referencing."
Asked if he were confident in the integrity of the election, Jordan said, "I'm confident the president is going to win."
The perception of Trump as a runaway favorite has been partially constructed by Elon Musk, the world's richest man, who is amplifying Republican messaging on his X platform and spurring accusations of shadow-banning, or minimizing who sees posts from Democrats and mainstream media.
Musk, an avowed Trump supporter and big donor, has said the former president is "trending towards a crushing victory" in crucial Pennsylvania. He's also claimed that Democrats are panicking about Virginia and has touted early-vote turnout in New Jersey "- two states considered safely Democratic.
Online betting markets have fueled the perception that Trump is a strong favorite by displaying higher chances of victory than mainstream polls and analysts. One such site, Polymarket, bans American users and has seen major moves by mystery bettors giving Trump an edge, with predictions circulating widely on X.
Meanwhile, Trump has seized on any issue that raises doubt about the sanctity of the voting process, as in Pennsylvania, where Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley announced Tuesday that the Trump campaign had filed a "huge lawsuit" against Bucks County.
The suit alleges that voters requesting on-demand mail-in ballots were "forced by security to leave" without them, while the county government said in a social media post that after a "miscommunication," those voters were belatedly given an opportunity to submit the mail-in ballots.
The Keystone State - critical to each candidate's paths to victory - also was the first thing Trump mentioned in remarks from his Mar-a-Lago residence Tuesday morning. He doubled down on the charges, without detail, in a social media post Wednesday: "Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before."
The early-voting trends also have given Trump fodder to convince supporters a wave is building, even as the data are blurry and fast-changing. Whereas Trump was a longtime critic of such voting "- steering his supporters to vote on Election Day "- allies convinced him to support alternative options this cycle.
Now, Trump boasts about early-vote turnout and asks his rally crowds if they've already voted, with scores of them cheering and raising their hands. Harris' campaign says it's Trump's die-hard supporters who are simply voting earlier, rather than swing voters flocking to support him.
Trump has repeatedly said Harris' record should sink her. "How do you win an election with this? You only can win elections if you cheat with this," he said in Pennsylvania this week.
To be sure, Republicans are poised for at least some gains, including in the Senate.
"I think we've got a good chance to be between 51 and 54" seats, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville, a staunch Trump ally, said Sunday, citing a prediction that's in line with polls.
But the House is less clear. Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a firebrand Trump supporter and critic of the current House speaker, said she wasn't sure Republicans can retain their majority. If they do, "it will only be because Donald Trump pulled us across the line," she said.
Other Republicans have warned that Trump could be spoiling his own chances at victory.
"They need to focus primarily on who it is they're talking to," Nikki Haley, who Trump beat for the nomination, told Fox News this week. Some of the recent rhetoric risks driving away persuadable women in particular, she said. "That is not the way to win people who are concerned about Trump's style."
