Dubai: The UAE’s exports are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6 per cent and over to cross Dh1.1 trillion by 2030 as the country becomes a key driver of global trade movements, Standard Chartered said in a report on Monday.
Global exports, meanwhile, will almost double from $17.4 trillion to $29.7 trillion over the next decade.
India and mainland China will continue to be among the largest export corridors for the UAE, accounting for 18 per cent and 9.5 per cent of total exports in 2030, respectively. Singapore, a regional trade hub and strategic corridor for UAE, is projected to grow at an average of 6.2 per cent per year until 2030.
The London-headquartered bank said that global trade will be reshaped by five key trends: the wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices; a push for more inclusive participation; greater risk diversification; more digitisation, and a rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets. “Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five- to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.”
> Roughly a third of global corporates plan to take advantage of the Vietnam-to-India trade corridor
> India and China will account for 18% and 9.5% of total exports in 2030, respectively
> Singapore, a strategic corridor for UAE, will grow at an average of 6.2% per year until 2030
Globalisation will drive the next decade of growth. “Despite the recent push towards onshoring, growth corridors of the future will not just be intra-regional,” the report says. “They will be global spanning Africa-East Asia; ASEAN-South Asia; East Asia-Europe; East Asia- Middle East; East Asia-Europe; South Asia-US.”
Asia, Africa and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years, supporting the trend towards rebalancing to emerging markets and greater risk diversification of supply chains.
Move to sustainability
The research found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a ‘top three’ priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.
“As part of its ambitious diversification plans from hydrocarbons, the UAE is successfully working towards cementing its position as the key trade gateway,” said Syed Khurrum Zaeem, Managing Director, Head of Trade & Transaction Banking, Africa & Middle East, Standard Chartered Bank. “With global trade expected to double by 2030, trade practices will need to be reviewed to be more equitable and sustainable.”
