Dubai: Gold, which has staged a stellar performance this year - climbing about 19 per cent in less than three months - has prompted some analysts to revise their price forecast for 2016.
A recent analysis of ABN Amro suggests that the precious metal should average $1,214 per ounce in 2016, up from the earlier forecast of $995. Gold’s average price for the last quarter of the year is fixed at $1,275 compared to $925 in the previous prediction.
“Market dynamics have changed this year, so we changed our gold price outlook,” wrote Georgette Boele, co-ordinator for foreign exchange and precious metals strategy at Abn Amro.
As of 2:30pm, 24-carat gold in Dubai traded at Dh152.50 per gram, up nearly 20 per cent from December 31 prices. Prices for other gold pieces increased as well, with 22K retailing at Dh143.25, 21K at Dh136.75 and 18K at Dh117.25.
Gold climbed to its highest level in 13 months last week. As of Friday afternoon, spot gold stood at around $1,260 an ounce, far from what other analysts had forecast last year.
The precious metal struggled in 2015 as prices took a beating from widespread speculation that the United States Federal Reserve would adjust the interest rates. The downtrend was forecast to continue this year, but since January, gold has been drawing in more bulls than bears.
“I have been surprised about the robust rebound of the price taking us even above the $1,200 level,” Rolf Schneebeli, CEO of Gold Services AG, told Gulf News on Sunday.
“The reasons for that, in addition to the underlying fundamentals which have been for a higher price all the time, are the increased international tensions influencing the market sentiment and ultimately the breaking of certain chart points which in turn brought the technical investors to the buying side.”
“For the future, I am not that bullish in the short term in a way that I don’t see the price reaching new highs now. I would rather predict a bottom building around the $1,200 level with a potential for a breakout on the upside within one or two years,” added Schneebeli.
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