STOCK Ariane 6
An Ariane 6 launcher is on display at the entrance of the 73rd International Astronautical Congress, held at the Paris Convention Centre in Paris, on September 18, 2022. Image Credit: AFP

After years of delays, Europe's new Ariane 6 rocket is finally poised for liftoff, seeking to prove that an old-fashioned, one-and-done spacecraft still has a place in an industry increasingly dominated by recyclable launchers.

The heavy-lift vehicle made by Airbus SE-Safran SA joint venture ArianeGroup is scheduled for its inaugural flight on July 9 from the spaceport in French Guiana on the northeast coast of South America. Liftoff is scheduled during a four-hour time slot that opens at 2 p.m. New York time.

While it's the centerpiece of European space ambitions, the Ariane 6 doesn't have the reusable rocket technology that has fueled SpaceX's rise to near-monopolistic dominance. Still, officials say they're winning business from satellite operators like Amazon.com Inc. that face a shortage of non-SpaceX launches.

"We have three years of firm orders," Lucia Linares, European Space Agency's head of strategy and institutional launches, told reporters last month.

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European launch provider Arianespace last year went to orbit only a handful of times while losing business to Elon Musk's rockets, which can be less expensive because they reuse the first-stage boosters that power them to space.

The Ariane 6 is part of a broader push by long-established defense contractors that once dominated the rocket business.

Before SpaceX's rise, companies like ArianeGroup, Boeing Co. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries were the major producers. SpaceX, founded in 2002, upended the rocket industry by pioneering reusable boosters and building many parts in-house. The company first reused a Falcon 9 booster in 2017, helping cut costs and the time between missions.

The innovations caught the old guard flatfooted. Musk's company had almost 100 missions last year, according to SpaceX. Older-generation American, European and Japanese rocket makers had a combined total of about 10, as many struggled to develop rockets that could compete with the Falcons.

The new rockets, delayed by problems making engines and other parts, are finally ready. However, they aren't reusable and may not be advanced enough to put a scare into SpaceX, which intends for its giant Starship, the new rocket that had its fourth test flight on June 6, to be "fully reusable."

"The cracks are starting to show" for the establishment firms, said Rebecca Allen, co-director of the Space Technology and Industry Institute at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne. "They're at a critical time to prove that they still have their worth."

While the upstarts look to have the upper hand, it's still too early to count out the traditional rocket makers, she said. Indeed, the year got off to a good start for the older rivals.

The Vulcan, from Boeing-Lockheed Martin Corp. joint venture United Launch Alliance, took off for the first time in early January. At the time, a confident ULA planned seven flights for it this year.

The Japanese space agency, JAXA, in February launched the first H3 from Mitsubishi Heavy, about a year after an earlier attempt ended in failure. JAXA launched again on July 1.

A new version of the European smaller rocket, the Vega C, hasn't flown since a December 2022 failure but is expected to launch by the end of the year, according to Avio SpA. The Italian manufacturer plans a mission of an older version of the Vega in September.

Japan's smaller Epsilon S rocket is still grounded, following an explosion in July last year.

ULA is trying to launch its second Vulcan certification flight in September and increase its launch frequency while facing pressure and financial penalties from the Pentagon.

ULA is working on plans to reuse Vulcan engines, Bruno said in a statement on Jan. 8. While Mitsubishi Heavy also wants to have a reusable vehicle, "we're not at the stage of developing anything concrete right now," CEO Seiji Izumisawa told Bloomberg Television on June 21.

MaiaSpace, an ArianeGroup-backed company developing a resuable small rocket, has set a target of 2026. ArianeGroup hasn't revealed plans for a bigger reusable rocket but ESA's Linares said at the press conference in June the agency "will continue improving and of course we are also in Europe working on reusability."

Younger companies are working much faster. Rocket Lab USA Inc. this year has had eight launches of its Electron, a small rocket which has a first stage that can parachute back to Earth and be recycled. The Neutron, slotted to debut next year, will be able to recycle its first stage and payload fairing (the cone at the rocket's tip).

"Reusability is an element that you must have" to compete commercially, said Rocket Lab CEO and founder Peter Beck in an interview. Reusable rockets and frequent launches "were once aspirational but are now minimal requirements."

Although the old guard isn't moving as quickly, they may still benefit from pent-up demand from customers that want to build or expand their satellite networks. Such companies have limited options: They can't use Russian rockets because of the war in Ukraine and US restrictions keep Chinese rockets off-limits, too.

ULA has commitments for more than 70 Vulcan launches, according to the company, including 38 for Amazon's internet-from-space Project Kuiper. Amazon in 2022 booked 18 launches on the Ariane 6.

Avio, which makes boosters for the Ariane 6, is preparing to ramp up production for about 30 launches of the new rocket in the coming years, CEO Giulio Ranzo told analysts in May.

The new European, American and Japanese rockets should also be able to count on government customers that don't want to have sensitive assets launched from other countries and are less concerned about price than private-sector companies.

Mitsubishi Heavy's H3 isn't intended to be commercially competitive, said Kazuto Suzuki, professor at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Public Policy, since the government cares more about having a local option and keeping sensitive technology away from foreigners.

"You don't want to disclose the information about your satellite outside of the Japanese security community," he said.

The Ariane 6 will receive at least four missions from public institutions annually, according to an agreement signed by Germany, France and Italy last November.

With sufficient demand from both commercial and government customers, the space industry's old guard will have a role, said Hermann Ludwig Moeller, director of the European Space Policy Institute, a Vienna think tank supported by ESA and national space agencies.

The situation is somewhat similar to the auto industry's transition from fossil-fuel-burning cars to electric vehicles, he said, with both types now on the roads.

"Diesel cars didn't disappear from the market even as we have more EVs," said Moeller. "There is going to be a period "- longer than one would think "- of having different ways of getting things to orbit."

That should give Europeans time to decide whether there's enough demand to make the leap to resuability, said Philippe Baptiste, CEO of the French space agency Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales.

"It makes no sense to make a reusable launcher if you don't have many, many launches to perform," he said in an interview. "It really heavily depends on the future market."