Dubai’s gold buyers brace for what could be the next big move in bullion

Dubai: Gold prices in Dubai held firm for the third consecutive session on Friday, with 24-karat gold trading at Dh506 per gram and 22-karat at Dh468.50. The steadiness follows a restrained week in global bullion markets, even as talk of record highs by 2026 gathers pace among major banks. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, said the metal has remained largely range-bound since late October as traders wait for more clarity from US economic indicators.

“The metal has been range-bound since October 28, as investors await critical economic data to assess the health of the economy,” Valecha said.

Weak US data supports bullion

Recent figures showing a contraction in private payrolls added to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. “The US private payrolls shrank by 32,000 in November. This is the lowest in 2.5 years. The dataset clearly indicates a weakening of the labour market,” Valecha noted.

According to data from CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut now stands near 89%. He added, “Hotter-than-expected inflation can dim expectations for a rate cut, leading to further volatility. Lower interest rates and a weaker dollar result favorably for gold.”

Range-bound but bullish momentum

Technically, Valecha described gold as finding support near its lower levels. “Gold is range-bound between $4136 and $4236. As of now, gold is seeking support at the lower range, which acts as a strong support,” he said. “A break above this resistance can lead gold to meet its next resistance at $4300.”

He pointed to gold’s strength above key short- and long-term averages. “Gold is trading above its 9, 21, 50, 100 and 200 SMA, indicating further bullish momentum,” Valecha added.

Silver, after seven straight sessions of gains, paused on Thursday. “Momentum faded yesterday, with silver closing almost flat, up by 0.04%,” he said. He added that silver remains “range-bound between $56.68 and $58.90” and that its daily RSI is “in overbought territory and gradually pulling back toward 70.”

Global forecasts signal gold’s next peak

The local calm contrasts with strong predictions of future price surges. Deutsche Bank expects gold to approach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, equivalent to about Dh589 per gram, citing strong performance against the dollar and rising demand from central banks.

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have matched or come close to that projection, both expecting prices in the $4,900–$5,000 range. TD Securities has a more measured forecast of $4,400 per ounce, while HSBC also sees a potential $5,000 peak in early 2026.

This alignment among major financial institutions is rare. Each point to similar drivers, such as slowing growth, widening US deficits, and sustained central bank demand, all of which reinforce gold’s appeal as a hedge.