As preparations are underway to hold the American-Jordanian-Israeli-Palestinian summit in Aqaba tomorrow, some political analysts believe the success of efforts to push forward the peace process relies on the U.S. readiness to play a "neutral and dynamic" position in solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
But some others expressed optimism, though cautious, that the summit would give peace efforts a momentum.
"I believe the indications are implying to the possibility that it (summit) would be, really, a push towards peace," said Tawfiq Abu-Baker, Director, Jenin studies centre in Amman, in reference to the meeting between Palestinian and Israeli Prime ministers, Mahmoud Abbas and Ariel Sharon on Thursday night in Occupied Jerusalem, which both sides described as "positive".
Abu-Baker, who is also member of both Palestinian National and Central Councils, told Gulf News "unless a major adventure occurs in a certain military operation (suicide attack), things are moving towards seizing the suitable historical opportunity, and towards reactivating the peace path," which has been suspended for more than two years and a half.
Currently the Palestinian Prime Minister is holding talks with Hamas to stop its attacks on Israel. Abbas said he expected Hamas to agree next week. And while Israel and U.S. said truce is not enough, and they want "a terrorist infrastructure" destruction, Hamas said it is still discussing the issue of truce.
Hamas will agree to truce this time and "its leadership abroad, which in the past deactivated such agreements, is in difficult position and does not want to embarrass its regional allies.
It does not and can't break that decision (truce)," said Abu-Baker. While some political analysts see efforts to make peace are stronger than efforts to break it at present, and expect a breakthrough in Aqaba Summit, some others don't share the same opinion.
"Personally, I am not optimistic that this round (high level talks) would achieve an important breakthrough, because such a thing requires real American pressure on Israel, and the presence of an Israeli government ready to give concessions to the Palestinians," said Hani Hourani, Director, and Al Urdun Al Jadid centre for Studies.
He expressed his "fears" that the two summits in the region, would put pressures on the Arab countries and the Palestinians concerning the roadmap and not on Israel.
"Unfortunately
. the Arab will has not been grouped and has not showed the ability to put pressure on the American Administration to take a dynamic, just and balanced position in the Arab-Israeli conflict," Hourani told Gulf News.
Coming meeting between U.S. President George Bush and several Arab leaders in Sharm El Sheikh would provide the Arab countries a chance to deliver a message to Washington that playing "a balanced" role in the peace efforts would help it regaining its credibility in the region, some political analyst said.
Both meetings in Egypt and Jordan constitute the most direct role Bush has taken in trying to end the violence between Israelis and Palestinians.
The meetings, American officials said, would demonstrate the U.S. commitment to move the peace process forward. Secretary of State Colin Powell was quoted as saying the meeting in Jordan would provide the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers the opportunity to directly express their views to President Bush on the roadmap, which envisages the establishment of a Palestinians state by 2005.
Jordan played an active role in negotiating, and developing the plan, which was unveiled last month, after the Quartet for the Middle East (U.S., EU, UN, and Russia) endorsed it late last year.
As a tribute to that role, Aqaba was the choice for holding the summit, Jordanian officials and American diplomats noted.
The visit of the U.S. president to the region after few days "would give a strong push to the peace process," Jordanian Prime Mini-ster Ali Abu-Ragheb said.
Reactivating the peace process "requires exceptional efforts, and I believe the party that has the ability to do so is the U.S. which has to put pressure on the two sides," and not only one, said Hourani.
Pressuring Israel to take several steps, such as withdrawing its troops from the Palestinian territories, would help Abbas to take steps that "has political justification", in the security issues, Hourani added.
Also, after the Palestinians took several steps, including forming a new government, Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said, "We believe the time has now come for reciprocal steps by Israel to change the daily lives of the Palestinians and start serious work, including the settlement activity."
While Jordanian officials said it is premature to talk about the income of the Aqaba summit, they added the summit talks will focus on steps to be taken after the Palestinian and Israeli adopted the plan.
Meanwhile, some political analysts expect both Abbas and Sharon to declare, separately, each side's recognition to the other during the summit in Aqaba, as well as drawing the details to implement the road map on more than one level.
"Also the American will move to provide real support and practical monitoring to implement the next steps of the roadmap," Abu-Bake said. "If this happens, going back would be a difficult thing."
Analysis: U.S. holds key to Aqaba summit success
As preparations are underway to hold the American-Jordanian-Israeli-Palestinian summit in Aqaba tomorrow, some political analysts believe the success of efforts to push forward the peace process relies on the U.S. readiness to play a "neutral and dynamic" position in solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.