In a recent interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), former head of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Nobel laureate Mohammad Al Baradei expressed his belief that he is making it harder for the Egyptian regime to regenerate itself by passing the presidency on to the younger Mubarak.

Though it is not official, many in Egypt believe that President Hosni Mubarak's son Jamal is being groomed to succeed his father, who has been in power for almost three decades. That actually sums up the euphoria in the otherwise stagnant Egyptian political scene since Al Baradei's return to the country earlier this year.

Al Baradei is an obstacle. His call for change and political reform has stirred an activity, especially among grassroots groups like Kifaya and April 6. But the traditional, mainstream politicians are reluctant to be drawn towards what they regard as a political ‘outsider'.

Though Al Baradei himself has not said that he was running for president in the election next year, his supporters are already campaigning for him. They are using the innovative tools of online campaigning, mainly through social networking sites like Facebook. The wider effect of the Al Baradei phenomenon is that others are now starting to campaign more actively for political reform and against Jamal's succession.

Yet, it is difficult to say that the political scene in Egypt is in a paradigm shift to accommodate civilians competing for high office. That would be an end of the traditional role of the military establishment in Egyptian affairs, entrenched since the 1952 revolution.

As Mubarak, who is also the supreme commander of the military, is in power that question has not been raised. But the recent medical condition, which kept Mubarak away for a while, has raised concerns, and people are looking at any sign from the military next-in-command (Defence Minister, Mohammad Hussain Tantawi) or the head of intelligence General Omar Sulaiman. Nothing indicates that there's any real change in the power structure, and once Mubarak started to recover it seemed like business as usual.

Donkey tale

Nevertheless, the spark of activism aimed at reform and change is not fading away, even though Al Baradei might not go the last mile. He must be credited with startling the regime to the extent that it might have no choice but to liberalise the political process to some extent. That should fuel the popular desire for change — a necessity after all these years of the same regime in power.

There is an old story, a metaphor for the indifferent masses who adopt a passive attitude to politics, that I still remember from my childhood days in our village in the Nile delta. It was about the mayor's donkey, which was unlike the rest of the donkeys in the village: it was mainly a means of private transport for the mayor and was not involved in any field work. Village mayors were not elected, but appointed by the Interior Ministry — the strongest representation of the central government.

The mayor would stay in office for life, and when he died the donkey was the biggest beneficiary of mayoral change for a variety of reasons. It would use the period of mayoral succession as a paid vacation, eating and resting with nobody to carry on its back. Then, it will be provided with a new smooth pack (like the saddle in horses). The new mayor would be light-weight, as he is still to eat much and do nothing, and won't whip it all the time, for he would not have developed obesity-related symptoms of high blood pressure and temper. The new mayor would not ride long distances, as his land holdings would still be small, before he steals more and more land from poor farmers.

The story goes a long way in mentioning advantages of mayoral change for the mayor's donkey. Ordinary people, especially during the days of feudal regimes, were like mayor's donkeys — aspiring for change even if the new mayor (representative of the ultimate political authority) is not going to be much different from his predecessor. At least they'll enjoy the transitional period, and the early days after change, like the mayor's donkey.

Egyptians are really thirsty for change, whatever it brings and whoever brings it about. They just need a break.

 

Dr Ahmad Mustafa is an Arab writer based in London.