The Election Commission of India announced the dates for the assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand this week. Voting will take place in two phases for Jharkhand and one day for Maharashtra cefore we know the results of the 23rd of November. With the battle lines drawn, the stakes are high for the BJP but even more so for the opposition which has just suffered a huge setback in Haryana.
For the MVA alliance of the Congress, Shiv Sena UBT and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, this election is a big moment to strike back at the BJP which has spent the last few years making and breaking parties in the state. The twists and intrigues in Maharashtra are like no other state in the country. The contest in Maharashtra is not a direct Congress-BJP fight. It is a fight between two coalitions.
Six months ago, the MVA alliance seemed to be clearly ahead in Maharashtra. But the Haryana polls have shifted the ground. In addition this this, local reports suggest that the BJP and the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena have been quietly working on the ground to shift the narrative. Seat sharing will be the biggest challenge for the MVA.
Frustrated with the Congress’s perceived high handed approach, allies including the Shiv Sena UBT have been speaking out about the party’s over confidence and hubris and the need for a more pragmatic approach on seat sharing. There has already been some tension within the alliance as the Congress laid claim to seats traditionally held by the Shiv Sena.
Some Congress leaders have spoken about “friendly fights” in those seats where they can’t come to an agreement but this arrangement was a disaster for the party in the recent Jammu and Kashmir polls. The Congress had “friendly fights” with ally the JK National Conference in 5 seats and lost them all.
Congress bargaining power
The Congress position in Maharashtra stems from their strong performance in the general election held only a few months ago. The Congress did well in Maharashtra going up to 13 seats, where it had won just one seat back in 2019. 11 of these seats were a direct contest with the BJP. However, a good performance in the Lok Sabha does not guarantee a good performance in state polls.
You just have to look at what happened in Haryana. The Congress did well in Haryana in the general election this year only to suffer a humiliating defeat in the assembly polls only months later.
This was despite 10 years of anti incumbency against the BJP. And this is why the Congress party’s bargaining power with allies has been reduced in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Rahul Gandhi has reportedly warned the party against over confidence this time.
The BJP on the other hand has shown its resilience after a less than impressive performance in the general election. Defying all predictions, the party won resoundingly in Haryana and is now hopeful of a domino effect from this. A win in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will completely change the post Lok Sabha poll narrative of a weakened and defensive BJP.
The morale of their cadre is now upbeat and the party is banking on schemes like the direct benefit transfer scheme for women, the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojna to see them through. Every state poll is important, but Maharashtra in particular is a prestige battle like no other.
The BJP needs a win to cement their position, while the opposition needs to win to change the perception that their performance in the Lok Sabha polls was not a fluke.
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