Dubai: The bullion proved to be a lucrative asset class when it rallied substantially last month, reaching its highest level since the global recession in 2008, after the controversial Brexit vote. Although signs became apparent over the last few days that the rally started to ease, the yellow metal again moved higher on Friday when reports of a Turkish coup attempt broke out.
With all the turmoil in the world, gold is seen to continue doing well this year and over the next few years. By the end of 2016, the precious metal could reach $1,500 and by 2020, signs point to the metal hitting a new record high in excess of $3,000 per ounce.
“That gold has held up is a good sign and vouches well for further increases,” says Rolf Schneebeli, CEO of Gold Services AG. “There is certainly a good chance that gold reaches $1,500 by year end, but we need to see the current positive trend to be confirmed. And it will certainly be a volatile development.”
“On the $5,000 an ounce by 2020, I am quite positive. It might be anywhere between $3,000 and $5,000, but it will certainly be substantially higher as now. All the latest developments in the world point to a prolonged low interest environment which means that the inflationary potential built up in terms of liquidity in the monetary system will not be reduced,” he adds.
Stocking up on gold bars, coins and even jewellery has always been the default reaction to times of uncertainty. Many people often rush to buy gold during a crisis, causing prices to soar. Gold bugs, however, have been warned against making any hurried decisions or letting themselves be swayed by fear mongering.
In its recent report, Merrill Lynch said that gold is headed for $1,500 an ounce this year.
“The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change,” the bank said in its report.
“We reinforce our bullish view particularly on gold and silver, which should continue to perform well given subdued global growth and risks that this will skew the public debate towards wealth generation/distribution, populism and migration, with all the negative consequences this may have on effective economic policy making.”
Gold’s continued positive performance can be attributed to the UK’s majority decision to leave the European Union, renewed doubts about the banking sector and the Turkish crisis.
“For the short term, the factors driving the price are again the fears about the Brexit, renewed doubts about the banking sector (this time Italy) and on a very short term basis, the situation in Turkey,” Schneebeli explains.
This isn’t the first time gold pundits have shared a bold price prediction.Analysts at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch had earlier forecast the metal to trade between $3,000 and $5,000 over the long term.
A recent analysis by Gold Stock Bull showed that the bullion could end the year at $1,550 and rise to $2,400 in 2017. The metal is seen to continuously climb to $3,200 in 2018, $4,000 in 2019 and $5,000 in 2020.
The uncertainty arising from the Brexit vote, coupled with speculations about more rate adjustments in the United States, among other factors, are seen to provide stimulus for prices to climb further.
“The [Federal Reserve] was planning to increase interest rate to slowly reduce and ultimately reverse the money supply growth. This is important to reduce the inflationary potential and the future inflation. As we know, inflation fear is a major driver for gold and hence, the prolonged low interest rates, [that is] easy money and money supply growth, are adding to the inflation fear,” explains Schneebeli.
“I am positive that economic issues will be solved over time and that by 2020, we will see inflation on the rise – and hence gold prices will be on the rise as well.”
Karim Merchant, CEO of Pure Gold Jewellers in Dubai, said that gold’s performance over the next few months or years will depend largely on any US Federal Reserve decisions related to interest rates, as well as the global economic outlook.
“Gold prices soared following Brexit as it unleashed further economic uncertainty and investors rallied to gold’s safe haven status,” says Merchant.
“Overall, the outlook for gold is positive and is expected to be on an upward trend as many institutional investors have started buying gold as part of their portfolio,” he adds.
ABN Amro’s short-term analysis, however, is more modest, citing that gold is expected to average only about $1,350 an ounce by the fourth quarter of the year.
“Though the overall outlook is positive. We have adjusted our precious metal forecasts to reflect more upside in the near-term and a possible price correction at the end of 2016/start of 2017. Such a correction would not change the longer-term bullish outlook.”
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