Abu Dhabi: Afghan forces will be ready for the 2014 deadline when coalition forces withdraw from frontline combat in the country, the UK's Ambassador to Afghanistan told Gulf News Sunday.
"If you were to say to me ‘are they ready now', the answer is no. The question is will they be ready in three-and-a-half-years' time. And I think that's the key," Sir William Patey, Ambassador, said from the British Embassy's residences.
"The short answer to your question ‘are they going to be ready', is yes," he added.
The news came as Nato announced it is increasing the training period for Afghan police recruits from six to eight weeks.
Sir William said that although this doesn't sound like much, it is "an extra third".
He continued that the current Nato training mission overall has "only really had the right number of trainers" and the "right number of resources" in the past 18 months, meaning that the coalition forces are a year and a half through a five-year project.
"The Afghans don't need training in fighting," he said, "they're pretty good at that. And what I discovered from my military colleagues is that the basic training skills are there".
The withdrawal of troops by 2014 was set out at the Lisbon summit last October. UK Prime Minister David Cameron said at the time that 2015 was the "clear deadline" for the end of UK combat operations and withdrawal of most British forces.
"[Year] 2014 is not going to be a cutoff point, a cliff. It's not going to be as if all the foreign troops there are suddenly going to leave. It just means that they will no longer be involved in any combat that's required," Sir William said.
ISAF (International Security Assistance Force/Nato-led coalition) troops will continue their involvement in logistics, training, air and financial support past 2014.
Victory a process
"Even without a political settlement or reconciliation, the Afghans will be able to take over the task. But of course there still is the possibility the Afghans will be able to reconcile with the insurgency, or some of them, and of course that could have the impact of reducing the amount of fighting that anybody has to do," the Ambassador said.
Earlier this month, Cameron announced the withdrawal of 400 British troops within the next year, signalling the start of eventual UK forces withdrawal.
For the UK's Ambassador to Afghanistan, victory in the war-torn country will be when "Afghans themselves are in control of their own security" he said.
"We might still have military training, where Afghanistan is on a road to self-sufficiency, it's developing its mineral resources and it's on a path to prosperity… Afghanistan still has problems… it will still have problems. But essentially when they're able to control their own security, with some assistance," Sir William said.
In comparison, he continued, South Korea receives assistance in the form of security from the United States and "no-one says South Korea isn't a successful state".
However, any victory as such will be a process, he said.
"There won't be a moment of victory: there will be a moment in history where you will look back and say yeah, that's working. So there'll be nobody planting a flag or hanging a banner across an aircraft carrier saying ‘mission accomplished'. This will be a process," he said.
ISAF figures show that coalition forces are 132,000-strong, while Taliban numbers range from 25,000-36,000 (as of March 2010).
"It's an insurgency, they don't form-up on the battlefield. I wish they did, it would be very helpful, it would soon end the war," Sir William said.
The insurgency eventually has to end in some form of political settlement, he continued, because "a handful of people with suicide vests can still be around".
"As we saw with the IRA, it doesn't take a big army to mount a terrorist campaign."
