UAE January weather forecast: Winter chill from Siberian winds brings cool days and foggy mornings

Dubai: UAE residents can feel January’s winter in full swing. This month is defined by a noticeable drop in temperatures across the country, offering residents and visitors a mix of pleasantly cool daytime weather and chilly nights.

It is finally time to pull out the heavy sweaters and prep the outdoor fire pits. The shift is primarily driven by the extension of the Siberian high-pressure system, which brings a cold air mass down into the Arabian Peninsula.

According to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), the forecast for January 2026 suggests that average temperatures will remain around the typical 18.3°C, though some areas may experience slightly warmer conditions than usual.

The NCM notes that the influence of the Siberian ridge creates a stable but cool environment, making it the peak time for outdoor activities, provided you have a jacket ready for after sunset.

Rain outlook: Low-pressure systems on the horizon

Will we see rain this month? The outlook is cautiously optimistic. The region is currently being affected by a series of low-pressure systems moving from West to East. Additionally, the extension of the Red Sea trough can occasionally lead to cloud developments.

• Average rainfall: The general average for the country is 11.1 mm.

• 2026 forecast: Rainfall rates are expected to be around or slightly lower than this average.

• Atmospheric activity: While the month is generally dry, the interaction between surface low pressure and upper-air troughs creates chances for scattered showers on certain days.

The 'Shamal' winds and rough seas

Residents should prepare for the Shamal, the strong Northwesterly winds that are a hallmark of January weather. These winds can significantly impact daily life, especially for those near the coast or in the desert.

• Dust and sand: The Shamal often picks up dust and sand, reducing visibility in inland and exposed areas.

• Sea conditions: Mariners and beachgoers should exercise caution, as these winds lead to rough sea conditions and increased wave heights.

• Wind speed: While the mean wind speed is about 12 km/h, historical gusts have reached nearly 100 km/h during extreme events.

Dense fog alerts: Morning commuter caution

Higher relative humidity levels, particularly in the early morning, significantly increase the likelihood of fog and mist. This phenomenon is more frequent in inland areas than along the coast.

Safety tip: If you are driving during the early hours, be prepared for sudden drops in visibility. Fog can often linger until the sun is high enough to burn off the moisture.

January at a glance: Climate overview

The following summarises the historical climatic data for January, as reported by the NCM.

The mean air temperature in the region typically ranges from 16.4°C to 20.0°C, with the mean maximum temperature varying between 21.3°C and 25.7°C. The mean minimum temperature generally falls within 11.6°C to 15.2°C. The lowest temperature ever recorded was -2.0°C in Raknah in 2021, while the highest temperature reached 36.0°C in Asab and Al Hiyer.

Relative humidity in the area averages around 63%, reflecting a moderately humid climate. The highest recorded rainfall was 229.9 mm at Saqar Port in 2020, indicating occasional intense rainfall events despite the generally dry conditions.