UAE society in demographic decline: Federal National Council submits 15 recommendations to government

UAE society is facing a worrying demographic contraction marked by declining birth rates, population ageing, and long-term structural risks. As the government searches for sustainable solutions, the Federal National Council (FNC) has presented a comprehensive, evidence-based plan comprising 15 urgent recommendations aimed at boosting fertility rates, strengthening family growth, and restoring demographic balance to counter the decline in births and the ageing of society.

A report issued by the FNC has sounded the alarm over the steady fall in birth rates across the country, revealing that the number of births among Emirati nationals declined by 11% between 2015 and 2022. In contrast, births among non-nationals rose by 5% over the same period. In 2022, the number of Emirati newborns stood at approximately 30,889, compared with 65,762 births among non-nationals — figures that underscore the urgency of developing both short- and long-term strategies, given the profound implications for social stability, economic growth, and national identity.

Recommendations to boost fertility rates

The report—discussed during the most recent FNC session last week—outlined 15 key recommendations designed to increase fertility rates, support the growth of Emirati families, and address the sustained decline in births in recent years. Notably, the report projects that the next five years will see a 30% increase in the proportion of women of early childbearing age, presenting a critical window of opportunity for targeted policy intervention.

Among the core recommendations is the launch of a comprehensive, targeted national strategy to enhance fertility rates, supported by clear performance indicators to measure the effectiveness of government programmes and initiatives. The report also calls for strengthening and expanding government initiatives that encourage and facilitate early marriage for young men and women.

In the healthcare domain, the FNC urged the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators to ensure the effectiveness of existing health policies aimed at promoting fertility. It further recommended the establishment of a federal fertility centre, taking into account the geographical distribution of existing facilities, alongside the provision of insurance coverage for fertility treatments across all emirates. Additional proposals include attracting specialised fertility professionals, expanding continuous medical education and training programmes, tightening regulatory oversight and inspection of assisted reproduction centres to ensure adherence to ethical and medical standards, and curbing the financial exploitation of patients.

Recommendation to increase child allowances

The recommendations also include increasing the value of child allowances to reflect current economic conditions, linking housing loan instalments and repayment periods to the number of children in a family, extending maternity leave and breastfeeding hours, and studying the introduction of a “childcare leave” scheme for working mothers in both the public and private sectors.

The report further calls for prioritising working mothers in the implementation of remote and hybrid work systems, commissioning specialised studies and research to examine the factors influencing fertility rates, and assessing the feasibility of reducing working hours for employed mothers.

In addition, the FNC urged the launch of a nationwide awareness and education campaign highlighting the risks associated with delaying marriage and childbearing, in coordination with health, educational, religious, media, and public-benefit institutions, as well as neighbourhood councils.

Growth of the Emirati family

The report noted that the Ministry of Family is actively working to dismantle the challenges hindering fertility growth and the expansion of Emirati families, treating the issue as a top national priority through a whole-of-government approach. The ministry has already initiated the first phase of a comprehensive national demographic assessment, based on robust data, international benchmarking, and in-depth analysis of the social and economic factors shaping fertility trends.

This assessment adopts a participatory framework involving 17 federal and local entities, ensuring policy coherence, integrated efforts, and a multidimensional understanding of the issue. The ministry is also reimagining marriage-related experiences to better support Emirati citizens, including reviewing marriage grant eligibility criteria and values, and exploring incentives beyond financial support. While material assistance remains important, the report emphasises that psychological, social, and intellectual factors play a critical role and must be addressed holistically.

Despite the recent decline in birth rates, the report strikes a cautiously optimistic tone for the future, noting that accurate demographic indicators suggest the next five to eight years will witness a 30% increase in the proportion of women of early reproductive age.

Sharpest decline in Emirati births in a decade

Official statistics released by the Ministry of Health and Prevention last December revealed a 13.55% decline in the number of Emirati births over a 10-year period from 2014 to 2023.

According to data published on the ministry’s official platforms, the number of births among Emirati nationals fell from 34,618 in 2014 to 29,926 in 2023. By contrast, total births in the country — among both citizens and residents — rose by 5.45% over the same period, reaching 101,088 births in 2023, compared with 95,860 in 2014.

The ministry’s births data report confirms the 13.55% decline in Emirati births between 2014 and 2023. Parliamentary data further illustrate that while Emirati births steadily declined over the decade, overall birth numbers recorded only a modest increase.

A chronological breakdown shows that Emirati births peaked early in the period, with 34,618 births in 2014 and 34,794 in 2015, before entering a gradual downward trend: 34,553 in 2016, 34,300 in 2017, 33,700 in 2018, 32,801 in 2019, 31,604 in 2020, 31,732 in 2021, 30,889 in 2022, and finally 29,926 in 2023.

Together, these figures reinforce the urgency of coordinated national action to address demographic decline, safeguard social cohesion, and ensure the long-term sustainability of the Emirati family and society.