Dubai: Democrat Kamala Harris is leading Republican Donald Trump 45 per cent to 41 per cent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday.
The poll indicates that Harris is generating renewed enthusiasm among voters and altering the dynamics of the race ahead of the November 5 election. This 4-point advantage among registered voters is a notable increase from the 1-point lead Harris held over Trump in a late July Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, the new poll has a 2-point margin of error and reveals Harris gaining traction among women and Hispanic voters.
Harris leads Trump 49 per cent to 36 per cent — a 13-point margin — among both women and Hispanic voters. This is an improvement from her 9-point lead among women and 6-point lead among Hispanics in four Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in July.
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Trump maintains leads among white voters and men, similar to his margins in July. However, his advantage among voters without a college degree has decreased to 7 points, down from 14 points in the previous survey. The poll underscores significant shifts in the US presidential race over the summer.
Swing states
President Joe Biden, 81, ended his struggling campaign on July 21 following a poor debate performance against Trump, leading to calls from fellow Democrats for him to withdraw from the race. Since Biden’s exit, Harris has gained ground in national polls and critical swing states.
While national surveys like the Reuters/Ipsos poll provide valuable insights, the state-by-state Electoral College results will ultimately decide the winner. In the seven states where the 2020 election was closest—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada—Trump holds a 45% to 43% lead over Harris among registered voters.
Meanwhile, a poll released by YouGov/The Economist on Wednesday finds that 56 per cent of Hispanic registered voters prefer Harris, while 34 per cent prefer Trump. The remaining 10 per cent consists of 4 per cent undecided voters, 4 percent who said they would not vote, and 2 percent who said they would vote for another candidate.
In a version of the poll conducted from July 21, the day Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, to July 23, Harris was leading Trump by a much closer margin of 44 per cent to 38 per cent among Hispanic voters. Support for the Democrat has increased in nearly every weekly iteration of the poll since then, peaking with this week’s survey.
However, the improvement for the Democratic ticket may be driven by Hispanic enthusiasm for Harris rather than a significant drop in support for Trump. While this week’s 34 percent is the lowest share of the former president’s Hispanic vote, he has never dropped below that mark, losing 4 points since Harris entered the race.
The new poll, conducted between August 25 and August 27, has a margin of error of 3.2 percent, compared to 3.1 and 3.3 percent for the older polls.
