With just a couple of weeks to go for the US presidential election, polls show that the contest between the two contenders — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — is tighter than ever. A new poll by NBC News released just days ago showed Harris’ popularity declining from a month ago with both candidates deadlocked at 48% each.
The summertime boost that Harris got soon after the August Democratic convention has gone. Another poll done by Fox News gives Trump a 4 points lead over Harris. As an observer of the US polls from the outside, I find it astounding that the race should be this close at all. It’s like America never woke up from the first Trump presidency and may possibly elect him to office again.
Part of the problem for Harris seems to be the burden of being part of Biden’s team. Like in other democracies, she is facing anti-incumbency and the perception that electing her would mean a continuation of the Biden administration. It didn’t help that during a TV interview when Harris was asked “would you have done anything differently than during the past four years?”, she said, “there is not a thing that comes to mind”. Trump’s campaign has played up this answer.
One of the more surprising developments in the campaign is that despite all his anti immigration rhetoric, Trump has actually gained among Black and Hispanic voters. Kamala Harris is still ahead in this demographic but the fact that Trump has made gains in this group at all is quite remarkable. And there are still no definitive answers about why this is happening.
A huge appeal
Polls done by The New York Times/Sienna show that among Trump’s core issues on trade and immigration for example, he finds support among Black and Hispanic voters too. The polls shows that nearly 40 per cent of Black voters and 43 per cent of Hispanic voters support building a wall along the Southern border.
45 per cent of Hispanic voters and 41 per cent of Black voters favour deportations of undocumented immigrants. Crime in big cities is also a huge issues. Trump’s foreign policy position of prioritising American domestic issues over spending big money in conflicts abroad also has a huge appeal.
The big worry for the Democrats is the razor thin margins separating the two candidates and how Harris has blown her leads in the few weeks. A BBC news report has traced how the ground has shifted for example in a key swing state like Michigan where Harris had a clear lead but now it could go either way. Immigration is apparently a key issue in the state. What is astonishing is that Trump’s racism, sexism, his dog whistles and conviction in legal cases don’t seem to have deterred a large number of voters.
The fact that Americans can even think of giving Trump another chance boggles the mind. Kamala Harris may not be the best Democratic candidate but in a match up against Trump isn’t it obvious who would make a better President?
As election date nears and in a race so tight, turnouts will matter more than ever. Both sides need to get their voters out but it’s the undecided voters who will clinch this race. Who they choose will decide the fate of America, and what happens in much of the world.
