When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced that the best picture category at the 2010 Oscars would be widened from five to 10 nominees, a leading American producer at the recent London film festival said bullishly: "You'd have to really screw up to not get nominated this time."
Has the return to the pre-1944 era (when 10 or 12 films were often included) really sparked a race for films not usually considered Oscar material— for moneyspinning blockbusters such as Star Trek, or for smaller films that might never have thought they had a shot before?
"It has — if you've got a couple of million dollars to spend on an awards campaign," says Kevin Loader, the vastly experienced British producer whose films "for consideration" this year are Nowhere Boy and In The Loop. As he admits, those probably have more chance at the Baftas, because the Oscars is a tough club to break into (and because Nowhere Boy is being released in America after the Oscar deadline). "LA is a company town and everyone there is biddable," says Loader.
"Once you're in, you're in, so I don't see the new move as a widening of cultural horizons, rather just more of the same, a battle between the marketing departments of various studios and their arthouse sub-divisions."
Extended lifespan
Loader's opinion comes under what Quentin Tarantino calls "the British, cynical view of awards season".
The director's Golden Globe nominations for Inglourious Basterds have put him somewhat surprisingly back in the Oscars running for the first time since Pulp Fiction in 1995, when he was nominated for best director and won for best screenplay.
"It's totally exciting to know you're going to the party," he says from New York. "You Brits look down on it, but I look at it like there are all these magnificent parties to go to, full of amazing people who dig your work and whom you can actually talk to. I met Michael Cimino the other night and talked for hours."
More importantly for Tarantino, nominations mean an extended life for the film. "Usually your movie runs in theatres for four weeks then disappears into a pile of DVDs," he says.
"But if it's part of the awards season, it has an extended heartbeat. It's like my baby walks with me still, she's not of the past but of the moment, of today. Plus it means the film isn't just appreciated in its usual niche crowd, either the internet "Ain't It Cool News" crowd or the "Sight&Sound" or "Film Comment" crowd, but it's suddenly part of the mainstream. And that's actually really cool."
Tarantino also believes the widening of the best picture category could have far-reaching benefits that will shake up what had become, he feels, an increasingly predictable Oscar race.
"Lately the battle has been just between two movies that realistically had a chance of winning. But now, if, say, Star Trek's actually on that list, it means it's in the game, and voters might go with their hearts and think: ‘Hey, I really liked that movie,' and it wouldn't be a wasted vote. I loved Star Trek, by the way — it's one of my favourites of the year, along with Zombieland."
Although it debuted at the Venice festival in September 2008, Kathryn Bigelow's Iraq-set bomb disposal drama The Hurt Locker is now receiving a belated jolt with its inclusion on many critics' Top 10 lists, Golden Globe nominations and best film and best director awards from both the New York and LA critics' circles.
"I'm finding the whole thing overwhelming yet completely thrilling," Bigelow says from Los Angeles. "However, I'm most delighted because it means the film is still of relevance and more people will see it and realise that, even as we speak, men and women are putting themselves in harm's way out in these ongoing conflicts."
Bigelow's film has been both attacked and praised for remaining non-political, and she admits she'll find that difficult throughout the oncoming onslaught of interviews and increased scrutiny of a high-profile awards season.
"Film is a medium of communication," she concedes, "and it's supposed to transport you to places you can't otherwise go, to open your eyes and to galvanise thought. Opinions are rich and diverse about these wars, and I just hope that my film can endure as a social commentary — being part of an ongoing awards process, part of the conversation, can only help that, so I'm just going to enjoy it."
Blackest ceremony ever?
After the eight-Oscar triumph of Slumdog Millionaire last year, British talent is likely to be restricted to a couple of acting nominations, probably for Carey Mulligan (An Education) and Colin Firth (A Single Man). However, such parochialism should rightly take a back seat to a more exciting trend — in the second ceremony to take place under the presidency of Barack Obama, this could be the blackest Oscars in history.
Lee Daniels' film Precious, a story set in 1980s Harlem, is a hot tip which could see nominations in many categories, including director, lead actress (Gabourey Sidibe), supporting actress (Mo'Nique and, seriously, don't overlook Mariah Carey) as well as for best film, which could bring producers such as Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry to the Kodak theatre stage.
Add to that possible nominations for Morgan Freeman's Nelson Mandela in Invictus and, I hope, the superb Anthony Mackie for supporting actor in The Hurt Locker and it certainly appears that, heading into a new decade, Oscar's old ceilings — which limited black artists and female directors — are cracking, if not entirely caving in.
Here are the six leading contenders for best film.
A PROPHET (UN PROPHETE)
Director: Jacques Audiard
Starring: Tahar Rahim, Niels Arestrup, Adel Bencherif and Hichem Yacoubi.
Plot: Young French-Arab Malek performs a "hit" for the Corsican gangsters who rule a Paris jail and begins to work his way up the criminal ladder within.
Form: France's entry for best foreign-language film has an underdog sensibility and a style that will be both accessible — a prison movie — yet fresh and exciting to Academy voters. Could be the surprise break-out from the foreign language ghetto (it's more likely than Michael Haneke's brilliant but austere The White Ribbon anyway), the first to do so since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2000 — although one could argue that Slumdog Millionaire was a foreign language picture, too.
THE HURT LOCKER
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Starring: Jeremy Renner, Anthony Mackie, Brian Geraghty, Guy Pearce, Ralph Fiennes and David Morse.
Plot: Following a bomb-disposal squad on their rounds in Iraq, it progresses as a series of incredibly tense stand-offs, orchestrated by a maverick commander who knows no fear.
Form: By far the best-received feature about Iraq, maybe because its sympathies are with the soldiers on the ground rather than with any political view. Bigelow could become only the fourth ever female nomination for best director (after Lina Wertmüller, Jane Campion and Sofia Coppola), and there's a likely nod for the cinematography of Britain's Barry Ackroyd.
UP
Directors: Pete Docter and Bob Peterson
Starring: (the voices of) Ed Asner, Christopher Plummer and Jordan Nagai.
Plot: An old man ties balloons to his beloved house and takes flight for the South American jungle where, with a boy scout stowaway, he meets a bird called Kevin, talking guard dogs and a mad explorer/inventor.
Form: Its slot opening the Cannes Film Festival gave Disney/Pixar's latest a huge artistic credibility, and despite experiencing a golden age, animation has not had a best picture nomination since Beauty and the Beast in 1992. With Wall-E winning the LA critics' best film last year, one senses the time of the toons has come again. The sad death of Roy Disney will also be worth some sympathy votes.
PRECIOUS
Director: Lee Daniels
Starring: Gabourey Sidibe, Mo'Nique, Paula Patton and Mariah Carey.
Plot: Precious, an obese, illiterate girl in Harlem, has two children after being raped by her father and abused by her mother, yet still finds a way to educate herself.
Form: A sentimental favourite and, having won the audience award at Toronto, it is following a crowd-pleasing awards trajectory similar to Slumdog Millionaire. But its blend of harrowing melodrama and inspirational self-improvement may not be to every voter's taste.
UP IN THE AIR
Director: Jason Reitman
Starring: George Clooney, Vera Farmiga, Anna Kendrick and Jason Bateman.
Plot: George Clooney is a lonely consultant who travels the country firing people. Meanwhile, he obsesses over air miles, loyalty cards and his empty love life.
Form: Clooney is Hollywood royalty and, after the success of Juno, Reitman is some kind of crown prince. The combination is deadly, but the film's uneasy mix of recession drama and romantic comedy is unlikely to win, although its commercial prospects are strong, given a high visibility during awards season.
NINE
Director: Rob Marshall
Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Penélope Cruz, Marion Cotillard, Nicole Kidman, Judi Dench, Sophia Loren and Kate Hudson.
Plot: A musical about an Italian director based on Fellini — struggling to make a new movie, haunted by beautiful women but overwhelmed by Italian guilt, cigarettes and style.
Form: Voters will find the star wattage hard to resist among a cast of so many previous winners — Day-Lewis, Cruz, Dench, Cotillard, Kidman, Loren. There's always affection in Hollywood for a musical, and films about filmmaking play very well to easily flattered film types, all aware of the brave insanity of the business they call making movies.
