Kuwait City: The price of crude oil is forecast to fall to $80 per barrel in the coming few years, due to expected growth of non-conventional oil output, according to a Kuwait-based think-tank.
The Diplomatic Centre for Strategic Studies said in a report, released on Tuesday, that it is difficult to make specific anticipations regarding the crude prices due to prevailing variables on the market.
On unpredictable factors, it mentioned international and internal conflicts, particularly in oil-producing countries, such as Libya, Nigeria and Iraq. Nevertheless, the crude prices will remain, mainly, affected by supply and demand.
Future oil prices will be affected by emerging factors, such as cost of supplies of non-conventional crude, namely shale oil. Other major factors are the readiness of member states of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to invest in oil industries, namely in drilling and exploring as well as the capacity to develop used oil wells, news agency KUNA said citing the oil report.
World oil demand, which amounted, in 2013, to approximately 89.5 million barrels per day (bpd), would reach some 94.5 million bpd in 2018.
Industrial nations’ demand, which stood at 45.5 million bpd in 2013, would drop to 44.5 million bpd in 2018.
The report said the oil demand by China and India would continue to grow, by three million bpd, some 60 per cent of the global oil demand growth.
It mentioned other factors that will influence the prices in the foreseeable future; namely world economy growth, re-stressing that extraction of non-conventional oil is forecast to be a key influencing factor in this respect.
Shale oil production in 2035 is forecast to hover at 10-14 million bpd, some 12 per cent of the world crude output, and when this happens, the prices will be in the range of $80-100 per barrel.
