London: The Bank of England raised interest rates by a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point on Thursday, after it said there had been “significant” news suggesting British inflation would take longer to fall.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to raise its main interest rate to 5 per cent from 4.5 per cent, the highest since 2008 and its largest rate increase since February, following stickier inflation and wage growth since policymakers last met in May.
Sterling briefly spiked higher against the US dollar while two-year bond yields briefly dipped below 5 per cent after the BoE decision.
“Yesterday’s shock inflation reading ... has clearly spooked the Bank of England into taking more drastic action than predicted,” Richard Carter, head of fixed income research at Quilter Cheviot.
“Until inflation begins coming down to more palatable levels the Bank of England will continue to put the brakes on the economy.” BoE policymakers had given little indication that a half-point rate increase was under consideration in the run-up to Thursday’s announcement.
“There has been significant upside news in recent data that indicates more persistence in the inflation process,” the MPC said. “Second-round effects in domestic price and wage developments generated by external cost shocks are likely to take longer to unwind than they did to emerge.” MPC members Silvana Tenreyro and Swati Dhingra opposed the rate rise - as they have all others this year - saying that much of the impact of past tightening had yet to be felt, and forward-looking indicators pointed to steep falls in inflation and wage growth ahead.
A spokesperson for Sunak said shortly before Thursday’s rates announcement that Sunak supported Bailey. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said the BoE had his full support and “tackling inflation relentlessly must be the immediate priority”.
Bailey has been criticised by some lawmakers from Sunak’s Conservative Party for not acting sooner and more aggressively on inflation.
Rate expectations surge
Expectations for BoE rate tightening have surged in recent days - sharply raising the cost of new mortgages - and before Thursday’s decision financial markets expected the BoE’s Bank Rate to peak at 6 per cent by the end of the year. By contrast, economists polled by Reuters last week saw a 5 per cent peak.
Britain’s economy - which was hit by the shock of Brexit as well as the pandemic and the surge in gas prices caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine - has dodged a widely expected recession so far in 2023.
However, unlike most other big rich economies, output has barely recovered to pre-pandemic levels and growth this year looks set to be a minimal 0.25 per cent, according to BoE forecasts last month.
The BoE’s rate increase follows the European Central Bank’s decision last week to raise rates by a quarter-point to 3.5 per cent, and rate rises by the Swedish and Norwegian central banks earlier on Thursday.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel described inflation as a “very greedy beast” on Wednesday, and the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said further rate rises remained “a pretty good guess”, despite last week’s pause.
The BoE retained its previous guidance on future policy, which stated that if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.
The central bank also noted that short-dated British government bond yields had risen sharply - pricing in an average level of Bank Rate of 5.5 per cent for the next three years.
The BoE said it would keep a close eye on the impact of higher rates on mortgage costs, as well as rising costs in Britain’s rental market.
Official figures on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation was unchanged at 8.7 per cent in May and underlying inflation rose to its highest since 1992.
Last month the central bank forecast that inflation would fall to just over 5 per cent by the end of this year and be below its 2 per cent target in early 2025.