Iran, Oman ‘very close’ to deal: Why Strait of Hormuz reopening may still wait

Iran and Oman are moving closer to an agreement on how commercial ships could travel through the Strait of Hormuz. But a shipping deal between the two countries does not necessarily mean the waterway will fully reopen.

Iran says full reopening depends on conditions it has set for the US, while Washington wants safe passage and oil and gas exports to return to pre-war levels.

What is happening now?

• Iran and Oman are close to a deal: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the two sides are “very close” to an agreement on managing shipping through Hormuz.

• Oman says talks are constructive: Oman says negotiations are continuing in a “positive and constructive atmosphere”.

• Full reopening remains conditional: Iran says an agreement with Oman alone will not be enough to restore normal shipping.

• US-Iran talks are also important: Vice President JD Vance says Washington and Tehran are still negotiating and that the US expects Gulf oil and gas exports to return to pre-war levels.

What route would ships use?

Under the proposed arrangement, ships would initially use a temporary route while Iran and Oman work towards a new Traffic Separation Scheme.

A Traffic Separation Scheme is simply a set of designated shipping lanes designed to keep vessels travelling in opposite directions apart.

So, even if Hormuz reopens, ships may not immediately return to the routes they used before the conflict.

Questions remain over which routes will be used, who will coordinate vessel movements and what security arrangements will apply.

Why is Iran changing the shipping route?

Iran has been directing some vessels away from traditional shipping lanes, citing security concerns.

The move also gives Tehran greater control over how vessels navigate the waterway. S&P Global has reported that many ships moved away from the traditional Traffic Separation Scheme during the crisis.

The EU has also said Iran's Revolutionary Guard introduced a system requiring vessels to provide information and, in some cases, pay tolls to transit.

This makes the key question not just “Will Hormuz reopen?” but “Who will control how ships pass through it?”

What does Iran want from the US?

Iran's Supreme National Security Council chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr has said the strait will not fully reopen until the US “corrects its behaviour”.

Iran's demands include:

• End US threats against Iran

• Permanently end the war with Iran and its regional allies

• Lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports

• Withdraw US forces from the region

• Compensate Iran for war damage

• Lift US sanctions

• Release frozen Iranian assets unconditionally

US had not responded to the demands at the time of writing.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has separately stressed that Tehran's conditions — not simply the outcome of talks with Oman — will determine whether the strait reopens.

Why does Oman matter?

Oman is playing a key role in the negotiations between Iran and the wider international community.

A workable Iran-Oman arrangement could provide a way to get commercial vessels moving again even while the wider US-Iran dispute continues.

But Oman has also warned that attacks on commercial vessels could undermine the talks.

That is important because agreeing on a route is only one part of the problem. Ships also need to be safe enough for companies to use that route.

How badly has shipping been affected?

Shipping through Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels.

Before the conflict, the strait handled roughly 130 to 140 vessel crossings a day.

According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, just eight vessels crossed the strait on Friday, down from the previous day.

The sharp fall shows why even a formal agreement may not immediately restore normal traffic. Shipping companies are likely to wait for greater clarity on security, routes and the rules governing transit.

What are the latest attacks?

The security situation remains a major concern.

• The UAE said an ADNOC vessel was targeted by an Iranian missile while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. No casualties were reported.

• ADNOC said more than a dozen of its vessels have been targeted by missiles and drones since the conflict began. One crew member has been killed and 20 injured in previous attacks.

• Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that a vessel about 18 nautical miles (33km) off Khasab, Oman, was hit by an unknown projectile. The incident caused a fire that was later extinguished, and the vessel and crew were reported safe.

• It was not immediately clear whether the two incidents involved the same vessel.

The attacks add another complication to the negotiations: even if a new shipping route is agreed, will commercial operators feel safe enough to use it?

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

The Strait of Hormuz links the Arabian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

Before the disruption, about 20 million barrels of oil a day — roughly one-fifth of global oil production — passed through the strait. It also carries a major share of global LNG shipments.

That means even a partial or conditional reopening could affect oil prices, shipping costs and global energy supplies.

What happens next?

The immediate focus is on whether Iran and Oman can finalise their shipping arrangement and whether Washington accepts the conditions Tehran has attached to a full reopening.

Even if a deal is reached, normal traffic is unlikely to return overnight.

The key questions are:

• Will the US agree to Iran's conditions?

• Will Iran guarantee safe passage for commercial vessels?

• Which routes will ships use?

• Who will coordinate and control vessel movements?

• Will shipping companies feel confident enough to return?

• Can the wider US-Iran dispute be resolved?

The key takeaway: Iran and Oman may be close to an arrangement that allows some commercial shipping through Hormuz, but Iran's demands on the US, continued attacks and sharply reduced vessel traffic mean a deal does not necessarily equal a full reopening.

With inputs from AP and AFP