Saudi Arabia forecasts wetter October and November, with temperatures above normal

Dubai: Mecca, Jazan and Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province could experience extremely heavy rainfall this month, with the Kingdom's weather authorities forecasting wetter-than-usual conditions across large parts of the country through November.

The National Center for Meteorology (NCM) said its latest seasonal outlook points to widespread rainfall during October and November, accompanied by temperatures that are expected to remain above average until the end of December.

October is expected to bring the most widespread departure from normal rainfall patterns, with the probability of above-average precipitation reaching 80 per cent across most regions, including coastal areas along the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf.

The forecast identifies Mecca, Jazan and much of the Eastern Province as areas where rainfall could reach extremely heavy levels, although the southern part of the Eastern Province is excluded from that assessment.

Several other regions could also experience substantial rainfall, including Tabuk, Medina, Al Baha, Asir, Al Jouf, Hail, Qassim and the Northern Borders.

The outlook also includes most of Riyadh, except its southern areas, and western Najran, where rainfall could range from moderate to very heavy.

Rainfall outlook for November and December

The wetter conditions are expected to continue into November, although the probability of above-average rainfall will ease to 75 per cent across much of Saudi Arabia.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall could affect Mecca, Riyadh, Al Baha, Asir, Jazan, Al Jouf, Tabuk, the Northern Borders and the Eastern Province.

Most of Qassim and Hail are also included in the forecast, along with northern and southern areas of Medina.

The outlook changes in December, when rainfall across most of the Kingdom is expected to return to around seasonal averages.

However, parts of Mecca and the Eastern Province could continue to receive above-average precipitation, with probabilities ranging from 40 to 50 per cent. Rainfall in those areas could still be heavy to very heavy.

Warmer-than-usual weather to persist

While rainfall is forecast to increase, the NCM expects temperatures to remain above seasonal norms nationwide throughout the final three months of 2026.

The largest departures from average temperatures are forecast in southeastern Mecca, eastern Al Baha, most of Asir, northeastern Jazan and much of Najran.

Southern Riyadh and southern and southwestern parts of the Eastern Province are also expected to experience some of the largest temperature increases.

In October, temperatures in the affected areas could average as much as 3°C above normal. That difference is forecast to narrow to 2.5°C in November and 1.5°C in December.