Asia Cup 2025: Bangladesh bank on law of averages against India

Dubai: On paper, India vs Bangladesh in T20s is as lopsided a contest as they come. In 17 meetings so far, the Indians have fallen prey to The Tigers just once.

For the remainder of their matches, Bangladesh’s growl has mostly been muffled, making more noise off the pitch than on it. And while there’s no reason to expect today’s crucial Asia Cup Super-Four encounter in Dubai to be any different, Bangladesh will be hoping that the well-oiled machine that is India malfunctions against them.

Both sides are coming off victories in their Super Four openers and know that another win today will all but guarantee a place in the final. India are likely to go with the same side that beat Pakistan on Sunday, while Litton Das’ side too would prefer to retain the same winning combination that helped them squeak through against Sri Lanka with one ball remaining.

Bangladesh were distinctly fortunate that things went their way in the Group Stage, with Sri Lanka’s defeat of Afghanistan in the last match triggering celebration among their fans. But, they seem to have taken matters into their own hands this time around, and their win over Sri Lanka in the Super Four opener will be a shot in the arm going into the India match. With the loss to Pakistan yesterday really denting the Islanders’ hopes, Bangladesh, who will play Pakistan in their last match, will be fancying their chances of winning at least one of their two remaining matches.

Here are some talking points ahead of this match…

Need to douse fire early

All the talk in this Asia Cup has been around Abhishek Sharma, the maverick Indian opener who has made everyone around him look pedestrian with his incredible hitting and strike rate at the top of the order. He is the highest run-getter in this edition with 173 runs so far, with a mindboggling strike rate of 208.43, and Bangladesh will be praying that the law of averages finally catches up with him.

Turning point

India have their spin troika in left-arm wrist-spinner Kuldeep Yadav, left-arm orthodox spinner Axar Patel and mystery spinner Varun Chakaravarthy who will be expected to play a crucial role on the Dubai pitch. Kuldeep is joint-leading wicket-taker with 9 wickets so far and his four overs will be key to the contest. Bangladesh are likely to employ two spinners – leg-break bowler Rishad Hossain and off-spinner Mahedi Hasan – to choke the run-flow in the middle overs and make a game out of it on a pitch that is expected to offer assistance.

The spearhead puzzle

India’s breakthrough man Jasprit Bumrah has been strangely off-colour this Asia Cup, with just 3 wickets in as many matches with an economy rate of 8.36. His opening bowling partner Hardik Pandya has also picked up 3 wickets and while the latter is in the team as an all-rounder, and can also contribute with the bat and on the field – cue the sensational running catch against Oman – Bumrah has struggled to find rhythm in his only specialty.

Slow and steady may not win the race

Bangladesh's two best T20 batters – skipper Das (129 strike rate) and Towhid Hridoy (124 SR) have mediocre numbers to show for their efforts. In contrast, even India’s Shubman Gill, overshadowed by his opening partner Sharma, is striking at 158. The interesting battle will, however, be in the middle order where the likes of Tilak Varma and Sanju Samson will come up against Bangladesh’s spinners. Varma, who smashed an unbeaten 30 off 19 balls against Pakistan on Sunday, doesn’t have a great record against spinners in T20s this year. The left-hander has scored only 92 runs off 80 balls in seven innings at a strike-rate of 115 and a dot ball percentage of 38, something the Bangladesh think-tank would have surely taken note of.

Lots of sub-plots and this one has all the makings of a feisty encounter.