Gold prices are racing toward $4,000: What UAE buyers should do now

Dubai: Gold is getting closer than ever to the $4,000 mark — a level that once felt out of reach.

For buyers in the UAE, from investors to families shopping for jewellery, the surge in prices is changing how people think about gold. The question everyone’s asking: should you buy now or wait?

Why gold prices are rising

Global uncertainty is driving the rally. HSBC expects gold to trade above $4,000 per ounce soon, pushed up by several factors — rising geopolitical tensions, unstable government finances, and questions about how independent the U.S. Federal Reserve really is.

The bank believes gold could keep climbing through 2026, supported by strong central bank demand and steady buying from large investors who want to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar. Gold, in short, has become the world’s safety net again.

What analysts are saying

Goldman Sachs agrees that gold’s long-term outlook looks solid but sees a slower path to $4,000.

It expects gold to reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and hit $4,000 by mid-2026. The only scenario where prices rise faster, the bank says, is if private investors start moving big money out of dollar-based assets and into gold — a move that could send prices as high as $4,500.

That means short-term gains could be limited, but the bigger picture still points upward.

What’s happening right now

Gold already hit a record high of $3,896.49 per ounce last week. The jump came as investors reacted to the U.S. government shutdown and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Those rate cuts make gold more attractive since it doesn’t pay interest — and when rates fall, gold tends to rise.

So far this year, gold prices are up nearly 50%, supported by large-scale buying from central banks and investors. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen strong inflows, showing that both professionals and regular investors are betting that gold’s run isn’t over yet.

Still, HSBC warns that if the Fed cuts rates more slowly than expected, prices could temporarily cool off.

What it means for UAE buyers

For gold buyers in the UAE, the effects are immediate. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.) 

Dubai jewellery prices closely follow international gold rates, and though the dirham’s link to the dollar helps limit volatility, gold has still become much more expensive.

For families buying gold for weddings or festive occasions, the higher prices mean spending more or choosing lighter pieces. For investors, timing is now crucial — buying in phases instead of all at once can help average out the cost and reduce the risk of overpaying.

Traders say short-term pullbacks could happen if prices hit $3,900–$4,000, as some investors take profits. But they also believe these dips could be short-lived.

Road ahead?

Both HSBC and Goldman Sachs expect central banks to remain heavy buyers over the next year or two, especially as countries continue moving away from the dollar. Combined with possible U.S. rate cuts and ongoing global tensions, that sets up gold for another strong year.

For UAE buyers, gold’s march to $4,000 now seems almost certain — it’s just a matter of when. If you’re buying for the long run, the message is simple: stay patient, buy smart, and be ready to take advantage of any brief dips before the next record high.