Gold cools in Dubai, should you buy now or hold for the next swing?

Dubai: Gold prices in Dubai softened on Tuesday after a strong start to December, offering a marginally better entry point for retail buyers. The 24k benchmark slipped to Dh508 per gram from Dh511.75 on Monday, while popular 22k eased to Dh470.50 from Dh473.75.

The pullback followed a sharp run-up in international prices, with spot gold holding near $4,250 an ounce early Monday, its highest level in six weeks. The metal remains firmly in a consolidation range that technical analysts say could soon resolve into a renewed uptrend. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

Fed cut bets tighten grip

The latest move comes as traders double down on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut in December. Markets are now pricing in about an 87% to 88% probability of a 25 basis point reduction at next week’s policy meeting, up from roughly 63% a month ago when global equities last peaked.

“Lower rates probably matter more to gold than lower gas prices. Gold is close to confirming a technical triangle continuation pattern, so a resumption of its core uptrend may be close,” the analyst noted in the World Gold Council’s Weekly Markets Monitor. That structure, last seen in late 2024 and again in April to August this year, typically signals a pause before the prevailing bull trend reasserts itself.

Silver rally hits overbought zone

Silver, which had been front‑running gold higher, also stepped back from record levels. The white metal fell as much as 2.4%, trading about $2 below the all‑time peak reached in the previous session, after a six‑day surge left the market stretched on technical gauges.

The 14‑day relative strength index pushed above 70, an overbought reading that suggests the latest speculative burst has run ahead of underlying support. Even so, silver has already completed its own triangle continuation pattern, and its outperformance versus gold is seen as a supportive signal for the broader precious metals complex.

Macro strain, risk rally and oil jitters

Last week’s data underscored growing strains in the US economy, from softer retail sales to weaker employment indicators, reinforcing expectations of near‑term Fed easing. In contrast, near‑target inflation in the euro area has tempered calls for European Central Bank cuts, while fresh UK tax increases have dragged on growth projections.

Across Asia, China’s industrial profits and purchasing managers’ indices point to slowing business activity, even as India delivered 8.2% year‑on‑year growth in the third quarter, beating forecasts on the back of resilient consumption and services. Against this backdrop, major global equity indices closed higher, US Treasury yields declined, and the dollar weakened, a mix that has historically been constructive for gold.

Triangle pattern brings bulls back

Technicians tracking spot bullion see the current consolidation as an orderly digestion of October’s powerful overbought surge. The World Gold Council’s chartbook notes that gold has been oscillating above its rising 200‑day average, with a series of higher lows beginning to trace out a classic triangle pattern.

A sustained break above resistance near $4,245 an ounce would, in that framework, open the door to $4,300, $4,337 and then the recent $4,382 peak, with a measured objective closer to $4,700. Support is clustered around $4,126 initially and more firmly at the 55‑day average near $3,998, levels that bulls will want to defend on any deeper shake‑out.

Dubai buyers weigh timing

For Dubai’s tightly watched gold souq, the modest softening in local rates comes at a tactically important moment. Retail demand tends to firm up in the holiday and wedding season, and dealers say shoppers are sensitive to even small moves after a year of steep gains.

With international prices still hovering near six‑week highs and Fed risk tightly stacked into December, some buyers are likely to stagger purchases in anticipation of further volatility. Yet the combination of a weaker dollar, easing real yields and constructive technicals keeps the medium‑term bias pointed higher, leaving dips like Tuesday’s as potential opportunities rather than a change in trend.