Dubai gold prices to stay low this week — will it crash again before 2025 ends?

Dubai: Gold prices in Dubai held below Dh500 per gram for 24K for a second straight weekend, signalling that rates have stabilised after weeks of fluctuation.

Retail prices for 24K gold stood at Dh482 per gram, after dipping briefly to Dh475.25 mid-week. The popular 22K variant held at Dh446.25, recovering slightly from Thursday’s Dh440 low. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

 International bullion prices remained close to $4,000 (Dh14,700) an ounce, following the US Federal Reserve’s second rate cut of the year. But the Fed’s cautious tone suggested fewer cuts ahead, strengthening the US dollar and putting mild pressure on gold.

 Analysts said the ongoing US government shutdown, weak manufacturing data, and softer safe-haven demand — after US-China trade tensions eased — are keeping gold in a narrow trading range.

 In China, new tax rules for gold retailers prompted some banks to pause new gold accounts, likely reducing physical demand in the world’s largest gold market.

Gold’s record rally losing steam?

 Gold’s rise in 2025 was extraordinary — the metal surged over 50% year-to-date, breaking the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time, with 26 new record highs in the first half of the year.

"Although gold remains range-bound between $3,886 and $4,046, is it trading close to the upper bound of this range after trimming recent losses," said Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer, Century Financial.

"Gold would need to break out of the upper bound of its trading range at $4,046 and recapture the upward sloping trendline above $4,110 for its broader uptrend to gain traction."

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS now expect prices to stay strong through 2026, in a range between $4,000 and $5,600 per ounce.

 The rally has been driven by central banks, which have collectively bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for the past three years — five times the usual average. Major buyers include China, India, Turkey, and Poland, seeking to diversify away from the US dollar and shield reserves from global volatility. 

What UAE gold shoppers can expect

For UAE residents, gold prices are expected to remain steady in the near term, staying below Dh500 per gram for 24K but unlikely to see a steep drop.

Analysts say short-term dips may occur if investors take profits or the dollar strengthens — potential buying opportunities for shoppers eyeing jewellery or coins.

Heading into 2026, most forecasts suggest gold will stay firm to slightly higher, supported by strong central bank demand, limited new supply, and ongoing global uncertainty.

While prices are not expected to plunge like the post-Diwali crash anytime soon, gold remains a reliable long-term store of value for those who buy strategically during price corrections.