Israel-Hezbollah tensions edge Middle East towards war

The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the Israeli strike on Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in July, mark a critical turning point in the Middle East’s escalating conflict. These targeted killings, coming after a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 teenagers on a football field in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, signal a growing risk of a much larger and far more destructive war in the region.

Tensions exploded further last week when a series of blasts across Lebanon, involving communication devices, left at least 32 dead and thousands injured. Pagers and walkie-talkies, remotely detonated, are believed to have been targeted by Israeli operatives.

The pager attacks represent a significant tactical victory, but their strategic value is unclear. Making thing worse, Israel conducted a targeted strike in Beirut last Friday, killing Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi, two key Hezbollah commanders and 43 others. Tensions have escalated between Israel and the Hezbollah, pushing the region closer to an all-out war.

After weeks of cross-border exchanges, Israel’s defence minister has announced last week a “new phase” of the conflict. This comes as Israel reinforces its northern border with Lebanon, moving significant military forces, including elite units, away from Gaza. Hezbollah has sustained losses, but so has Israel, with both sides suffering casualties.

Israel's overwhelming force

A full-scale war could be devastating for both Israel and Lebanon, as Hezbollah has built up significant military capabilities since their last conflict in 2006. Hezbollah, with its enormous military stockpile, including up to 200,000 rockets and missiles, poses a significant threat to Israel. On the other hand, the Israeli military, equipped with cutting-edge technology and advanced weaponry, retaliates with overwhelming force.

But the implications of such a war wouldn’t stop at Lebanon and Israel’s borders. Hezbollah’s deep connections to Iranian proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen mean that a regional conflict could easily erupt, involving other actors in the broader “axis of resistance” against Israel. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen could join the fight, potentially turning the confrontation into a full-scale regional war that stretches as far as Iraq.

The current cycle of strikes and counterstrikes leaves little room for diplomacy. Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government, shows no signs of backing down, driven by a hardened political climate. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, bolstered by years of battlefield experience, particularly from the Syrian Civil War, feels increasingly confident in its capabilities. Both sides are poised for war, yet neither seems eager to be the first to blink.

A full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah would be devastating. Hezbollah’s fighters are highly skilled and deeply entrenched in Lebanon’s rugged terrain, equipped with advanced anti-tank weapons and missiles. They’ve spent decades preparing for this kind of conflict, developing expertise in urban warfare and complex military operations. In addition, Hezbollah has built a formidable cyberwarfare capability.

On the other side, Israel’s military, one of the most technologically advanced in the world, is more than capable of delivering a devastating response to Hezbollah. Its fleet of F-35 stealth fighters, advanced missile defence systems, and unrivalled intelligence capabilities give it a significant advantage. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been preparing for another conflict with Hezbollah since their war in 2006, and they understand the group’s strengths and vulnerabilities well.

Transforming modern warfare

Yet, despite these advantages, Israel’s military is facing exhaustion. After nearly a year of intense fighting in Gaza, the strain on its soldiers and equipment is becoming increasingly apparent. Many troops have completed multiple tours, and Israel’s reserves are overstretched. A war with Hezbollah, far more formidable than Hamas, would require immense resources, placing further strain on an already tired military.

One critical factor that could reshape the nature of the conflict is the use of drone warfare. The recent Russia-Ukraine war has shown how drones are transforming modern warfare, used for reconnaissance, targeting, and even direct strikes. Hezbollah, with around 2,000 Iranian-supplied drones, is expected to use these tools extensively. Israel, a leader in drone technology, will also rely on its unmanned systems, making drone warfare a central feature of any future conflict between the two.

Despite Western powers, including the United States, calling for restraint, there’s little optimism that diplomacy will prevail. While US mediators have pushed for ceasefires, the reality on the ground remains precarious. Both sides have entrenched positions, and once war breaks out, it will be difficult to contain.

A significant concern remains Iran’s role in any future conflict. Tehran has long used Hezbollah as its primary regional proxy and could easily escalate the situation by involving its forces in Iraq and Syria. A war on this scale would not just devastate Lebanon and Israel but destabilise the entire Middle East.

Neighbouring countries would be drawn into the conflict, potentially disrupting global energy supplies. The region, already fractured by years of conflict, would see new waves of refugees, exacerbating sectarian tensions and further destabilising fragile states.

The danger of a wider war in the Middle East is not just a distant possibility — it is a looming reality. Both Hezbollah and Israel are preparing for war, with the military capabilities to inflict massive destruction. However, the consequences would be disastrous for the entire region.