He had warned of a war in Afghanistan. And he had warned not to invade Iraq before Taliban and Al Qaida had been removed completely from the Hindukush mountains. Otherwise, "there will be a real mess there". Now, his warnings have all come true. Tom Carew (51), a former member of the British SAS (Special Air Services) and author of the book Jihad! - The Secret War in Afghanistan, is not happy to be right. In an interview with Dr. Rene Gralla and Peter Orzechowski in Antwerp, he points out various options to end the guerrilla wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Tom Carew: You can only do one job at a time. I agree Saddam had to go - no matter if he had weapons of mass destruction or not. He had killed thousands and thousands of Iraqis. That's reason enough. But he wasn't such a priority. The U.S. could have taken care of him later, as well. Afghanistan was more of a priority. And it still is.
The Americans left Afghanistan in a real mess. Things have become very dangerous there. It is possibly a low-key guerrilla war [now]. It will escalate. It will grow bigger. The U.S. should have taken control of the whole country before they invaded another country - Iraq.
You have trained the mujahideen against the Soviets in the eighties in Afghanistan, you know the country and the people: what goes wrong there?
A couple of weeks ago I was in the region of Gardez. There is a U.S. base. I could see it with my own eyes: the Americans caused a real mess there. Most of the GIs are arrogant: "Here we are, we are Americans!" They probably think of themselves as real cowboys. They break into houses, search them and shoot down men if they are in their way. You can't do that! They also want to disarm the Afghans. But if you take a man's rifle there, it's like you steal his wedding ring - it's taking one's honour.
So, what should the GIs do in Afghanistan?
Let the locals do it! They can do a better job, they know the area. The Americans have to be low key and train local security forces at the same time. After that you need only a few military advisers to help the Afghans to pressure the Taliban in the Hindukush mountains.
Besides, the GIs should start to behave themselves and treat the people there with respect. The Afghans are men of honour, you've got to respect them. The Americans have to change quickly, because it doesn't look good for them at the moment.
You just mentioned the Taliban. Public opinion doesn't consider them a threat any more - two years after the fall of their rule.
That's terribly wrong. About 17,000 Taliban have escaped. They just faded back into the mountains and regrouped. They have already started guerrilla warfare. These ambushes become more intense by the day. This process is snowballing. At any time now there can be a major uprising. That could happen all of a sudden. It only takes a few incidents.
That sounds very pessimistic. Shouldn't the Afghans be happy to be freed from the terror-regime of the Taliban?
The war has made many people homeless. And these people join the Taliban. Or they join Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. This Islamic leader has been prime minister in Kabul and he hates Karzai. He thinks Hamid Karzai to be Washington's puppet. In the East, near Kunar, he is building up his new power centre and is calling for a Jihad against the U.S. occupation.
At the beginning of the war in Afghanistan, you warned that the occupation army should stay in the country for only a couple of months. Otherwise all the tribes and warlords will unite and start a guerrilla war against "the foreigners".
And exactly this is happening right now. The Afghans have a very old hatred of foreigners on their ground. They tolerate you in small numbers, but no great armies. They smashed every army that tried to stay there for a longer time. They beat the Russians, and the British have been kicked out twice.
You mean, they are hostile even against the Isaf peacekeepers who are there to keep Kabul safe?
You have seen what happened in June. Nobody there likes an occupying power. And there were many warnings before the bombing in June. But nobody took it seriously.
Is this also true for the Iraqi people? Is Iraq another Afghanistan?
I'm afraid, so. I think, it's going to escalate there, as well. Saddam Hussain had created many special forces, suicide commandos etc., before the war. And these guerrillas are still fighting now. The U.S. army has no experience with that. Our British guys are more alert to ambushes, are more trained for that. We had that training for Northern Ireland.
Everybody can imagine that there is a guerrilla war in Afghanistan with all its mountains and caves. But how is it possible to fight this kind of covert war in a flat country where you can see for miles?
You can fight a guerrilla war everywhere. The point is whether the guerrillas get support from the citizens there. Because then, they can melt away after the attack. Of course, it is no good fighting out in the open. So, they fight in the cities where they have sufficient cover. Just like the IRA in Northern Ireland.
How can the U.S. win this guerrilla war?
To be honest, I don't know. They have a clean-up job to do. They have removed one problem - Saddam Hussain - and created 20 others. In any case, you need professional troops there on the ground. That's the only way to avoid more bodybags. At the moment, there are regular troops in Iraq - men who have never fought a war.
They panic when they are under attack. We all know American soldiers: they fire first and ask questions after that, because they panic. It's really crazy there! The most important step is to win over the Iraqi people. But a lot of damage has been done already.
Like in Falludsha, West of Baghdad, where U.S. soldiers shot at a rally and killed 15 people?
Exactly.
Yours is quite a gloomy prognosis for Iraq, then?
Oh yes.. At the moment, yes.
Do you have an exit-strategy for Afghanistan?
Keep your units together, try to keep your integrity intact and do a tactful withdrawal.
Sounds a little bit like Vietnam…
Sometimes history repeats itself. The Americans are known for running into self-made problems - over and over again.
With your comments and criticism, you have yourself been attacked and accused quite often. After you warned of the war in Afghanistan, the BBC claimed, you have not been a member of the SAS.
I sued the BBC for that. How ridiculous this accusation is shows from the fact that I have been in Afghanistan just recently for the British ministry of defence - as I told you earlier.
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