Pakistanis celebrate the 68th anniversary of the country’s independence with a feeling of optimism, cautious though it might be as is the case almost everywhere in a world beset by the challenges of economic recession, climate change, regions in strife and unprecedented flows of refugees and economic migrants.
Pakistan over the years has been subject to many pressures caused by hostile or unstable neighbours, an energy crisis and a growing tide of extremism and terrorism.
The ability to cope has been handicapped by the quality of governance whose delivery has eroded, and with it the infrastructure which has been unable to keep pace with a rise in population with a rate of increase less than before but still difficult to sustain.
Why then should there be a sense of optimism in the air? The democratic system has been taking root and has come out of the period when political parties and pressure groups preferred coming out on the streets to enforce reform rather than working within the parliamentary system.
After far too long, a national consensus has been reached that all steps to counter and eradicate extremism and terrorism must be taken without the compromises attempted in the past, and without fear of potential consequences. The tragic aftermath of the terrorist attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar last December was the decisive turning point. The Pakistan military, supported by the security and law enforcement agencies which have to carry out this task, lacked prior to then the necessary political and civic society backing.
A national action plan against terrorism has been formulated, and while the pace of its implementation faces some criticism, action on the ground and its effect are clearly visible. The Pakistan Army supported by the Air Force has carried out extensive operations in the regions bordering Afghanistan, long the home of terrorists and their sympathisers who had crossed over from Afghanistan or are funded by hostile intelligence agencies.
It is now up to the civil administration to re-establish itself in the areas regained. A major operation is also underway in Karachi where mafias, some backed by political parties, held sway. Security is being tightened up all over the country. While this will take time the decrease in incidents of terrorism and the increase in a sense of security is clearly visible.
The other major factor has been that Pakistan’s traditional support for, and prioritisation of its ties with, China, despite the cost it has at times incurred — including hostility from regional and major powers — has led to a milestone agreement which was unveiled by President Xi Jinping during his visit to Pakistan in April. The objective is to lift the economic aspect of this bilateral relationship to the same level as the political and strategic components.
This is to be done under an overarching vision of a community of shared destiny by: making Gwadar port the southern anchor of the ‘One Belt One Road’ Eurasian connectivity for both the road and maritime silk routes; developing the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) up to Kashgar to open up the hinterlands of both countries to trade internally as well as with other regional countries. Another objective of this $46 billion (Dh169 billion) quantum of Chinese projects is massive investments in Pakistan’s energy generation and highway projects.
This major Chinese investment will give a boost to the economy which has already seen a revival of modest growth. It has also reawakened interest from the United States and from Russia in enhancing economic cooperation with Pakistan.
The conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran has brightened the chances of completing the gas pipeline project from that country. This in turn has prompted Turkmenistan to start work on the long delayed gas pipeline across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. The completion of either pipeline will augment the country’s energy security and that of India if so extended.
On the foreign policy side, relations with Afghanistan after the advent of President Ashraf Gani and his government have much improved, though given the difficulties that Afghanistan faces, occasional problems can arise. Hopefully without a return to the volatility of the past.
With India, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s constant efforts for better relations have with some exceptions not been adequately reciprocated by the other side, emboldened by its growing strategic partnership with the United States and its western allies, its economic strength, and an assertive ultra nationalist leadership. Pakistan believes that efforts towards internal destabilisation originate from across the border at a time when it is trying to focus on combating terrorism. There is of course a trust deficit on the other side as well.
The forthcoming meeting between the two National Security Advisers would be a positive step and should provide for candid and pragmatic discussions on how to move forward. Ending the now periodic flare-ups along the Line of Control (LOC) should be the first step.
A significant number of Pakistanis work abroad, particularly in the Gulf region, sending back some $18 billion annually in remittances, which contribute to the resilience of Pakistan’s economy. Working abroad and looking for further such opportunities is a common aspiration also in India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
However, one aspect that sets Pakistan apart in the region is that some three to four millions Afghans, Bangladeshis and Burmese, along with a smaller number of Africans, have found their way to Pakistan. While this influx needs better regulation it does show that many from abroad find Pakistan a land of opportunity.
— Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder is a retired Pakistani diplomat.
