For several decades, precisely since the end of the Yemen War in the late 1960s, Saudi Arabia has adopted an exceptionally quiet diplomacy in managing its foreign and regional policies. Even when its core interests were threatened by outside powers be that Iraq, Iran or the former Soviet Union, Riyadh remained committed to play its role without creating much of the noise that distinguishes Arab politics.

Following the US invasion of Iraq, however, Saudi Arabia decided to abandon this noiseless — and for some pacifist — diplomacy. Riyadh started to play a more aggressive role in the region, expressing its displeasure clearly and loudly with US policies in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East.

This dramatic shift in Saudi foreign policy was, in fact, instigated by anxiety over Iran's rising influence and the retreat of the main Arab actors, which have historically played key role in regional politics.

Egypt lost much of its influence as the ageing Mubarak regime was completely pre-occupied with the succession question. Iraq was neutralised and destroyed by the US military machine. Syria was isolated as a result of its anti-western policies.

Meanwhile, the US, the major military power in the region, was struggling to arrange for an orderly retreat after its ill-fated venture in Iraq and Afghanistan.

For the Saudis, this power vacuum has to be filled somehow. Fearing that Iran might take advantage of the fragmented and weakened Arab world, Saudi Arabia decided to take the unusual step of taking the lead.

Disastrous policies

As a consequence of the disastrous policies of the US in the region, the Middle East has become the arena where the two regional heavyweights — Iran and Saudi Arabia — are competing for influence.

The clash of interests manifested itself in the ongoing tension in Lebanon, the contest between Fatah and Hamas for Palestinian leadership, and the conflict in Yemen between Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

It is Iraq however which is increasingly becoming the key point of contention between the two countries. With the imminent departure of all US troops from the country and with the ongoing political stalemate that has created a power vacuum, Saudi Arabia and Iran jostle for influence.

Fearing the possibility of a tacit US-Iran understanding to back a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad, King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz called last week for a meeting for all Iraqi leaders in Makkah following the Haj season. The call implicated that Riyadh cannot stand idle watching Iraqi Sunnis being sidelined and excluded from the power sharing formula negotiated between Washington and Tehran.

Clearly, Riyadh does not prefer the current Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki to retain his position for fear that he will allow Iran to dominate Iraq. Meanwhile, Iran works hard to prevent the Saudi-backed former prime minister and leader of the Iraqiya bloc Eyad Allawi from replacing Al Maliki as prime minister.

Economic power

The Saudi government has made a series of goodwill gestures, including receiving and promoting several anti-Iran Iraqi politicians in an attempt to contain Tehran's influence in the country.

Saudi Arabia has not been only attempting to win political influence in Iraq but has also been trying to expand its economic power there too. For example, last July, a Saudi airline launched the first direct flights to Iraq in almost 20 years, having been suspended in the aftermath of Saddam Hussain's invasion of Kuwait in 1991. Furthermore, Saudi food firms have become involved in the export of foodstuffs to Iraq via Kuwait and Jordan.

It is unclear however how far the Saudis would go in trying to limit Iran's influence in the Iraq. It is worth mentioning that on November 29, 2007, the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project in Riyadh, Nawaf Obaid, wrote an article in the Washington Post in which he warned that a precipitous withdrawal of US troops from Iraq will result in an immediate and massive Saudi military intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from "butchering Iraqi Sunnis".

The Saudi government, Obaid added, is under huge domestic pressure to protect the Sunni community in Iraq and to counter Iran's growing influence.

In fact, the Saudi-Iranian conflict has left profound marks on the politics of the Middle East in recent years. The two countries have found themselves locked up in the middle of a conflict over almost every single Middle Eastern problem — Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine.

The US government cannot afford to ignore this conflict and will have to take it into account when it comes to decide on its new strategy in the Middle East after the mid-term elections.

 

Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is director of the Damascus Centre for Economic and Political Studies (DCEPS).