Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Ukraine. This marks a significant milestone in India’s diplomatic engagement with the war-torn region. Will something major emerge from this meeting? Can India play a pivotal role in bringing peace to the area? The hope is that, beyond balancing his earlier visit to Russia, Modi can indeed make a meaningful contribution to the peace process in the war-torn region.
Modi’s visit follows his stop in Poland, where he reiterated India’s commitment to peace and stability in the region. He is the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Poland since Morarji Desai, who went there in 1979. Poland’s economy is strong; India would do well to build ties, as it hopes to export both manpower and manufactured goods to Eastern Europe. As for Ukraine, no Indian Prime Minister has ever visited the country since it declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Modi’s visit to Russia on 8-9 July 2024, his first since taking office as Prime Minister of India, drew considerable criticism from the West. He and Russian President Vladimir Putin held the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit during that visit.
His bear hug with Putin, widely circulated across mainstream and social media, was heavily criticised. However, hugging world leaders is part of Modi’s charm offensive and should not be interpreted too literally. It is possible that he will embrace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well.
Returning to Russia, we must not forget that it is not only India’s old and durable friend but also its largest supplier of arms. An estimated 60% of Indian weapons come from Russia. More recently, Russia has also become one of India’s biggest oil suppliers.
Estimates suggest that around 40% of India’s oil is imported, either directly or indirectly, from Russia, and at very competitive prices. Moreover, India can pay for it in rupees, thus saving precious foreign exchange. Though the US and China continue to be India’s largest trading partners, India’s military and energy needs are heavily dependent on Russia.
Regarding the war, Modi has consistently emphasised the need for a peaceful resolution. In his meetings with Russian President Putin, he has expressed concern over the loss of innocent lives, including children.
“When innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds, and that pain is very terrifying,” he said, urging both sides to engage in dialogue and diplomacy. Modi’s stance aligns with India’s long-standing policy of multilateralism, or what used to be called non-alignment.
India’s diplomatic efforts
Modi’s visit to Ukraine demonstrates India’s careful strategy of balancing its ties with both Russia and Ukraine. This balancing act reflects India’s commitment to fostering peace and stability in the region while also maintaining its relationships with both countries.
India’s diplomatic efforts aim to promote a diplomatic solution to the conflict, positioning the country as a potential mediator. India is, after all, an emerging and balancing world power, a leader of the Global South, the most populous country, and the largest democracy in the world.
Ukraine is not only Europe’s second-largest country by area but also used to be its breadbasket. At one time, there were over 16,000 Indian students in the country; today, some Indians are trapped in the war, conscripted to fight on the Russian side. Modi’s visit to Ukraine also marks a more active engagement in international conflict resolution.
The key outcome of the Modi-Zelenskyy meeting include strengthening political and economic relations by signing multiple agreements in agriculture, health, pharma, and culture. In addition, India promised to boost humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Both countries condemned extremism too.
For me, though, the key moment was when Modi clarified India’s stance on the war: “We were never neutral,” he said in Hindi, “from day one, we have taken a side, and we stand firmly for peace.” He also said that India supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Ukraine, in turn, supported India’s long-standing attempts to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
No sincere effort is ever wasted. This truism must apply to Modi’s Ukraine trip, even if the outcome is not an immediate cessation of hostilities. Besides having very little downside, the visit also has a potential domestic upside. Modi’s stature in India, after a diminished mandate, is sure to receive a boost if the visit is successful.
Rather than joining the US and Western orbit as a vassal or tributary power, India has decided to embark on strategic independence and diplomatic sovereignty. Will this pay off in the long run, and if so, for how long?
As long as India can play even a small role in promoting peace, Modi’s diplomatic endeavours will be appreciated by the global community.
