Revolutions are typically bloody, but the January 25 Egyptian revolution was different. The young generation in Egypt came up with a mature and possibly the most amicable revolution yet.
They managed to dismantle Hosni Mubarak's authoritarian regime in 18 days. The 80 million Egyptians are now politically emancipated and are celebrating their long awaited freedom.
But while the Egyptians are deeply immersed in their revolutionary mode, the outside world seems to be more concerned about the future of Egypt. The million dollar question on everyone's mind is: What next for Egypt? What direction is the post-Mubarak Egypt likely to take?
My own straightforward answer to this question is that Egypt is not going to be another Iran. The new Egypt has the potential to be the Brazil, the South Korea and the Indonesia of the Arab world.
Those who equate Egypt to Iran display a gross misunderstanding of the country. They are grossly misreading the dynamics of the Egyptian revolution, which is palpably a nationalist, not an Islamist revolution. Their thinking is typically narrow-minded orientalist which sees the orient as perpetually and innately despotic in nature.
The difference between the relatively moderate Sunni Egypt and the radical Shiite Iran is vast. So is the difference between the bloody 1979 Iranian revolution and the surprisingly orderly 2011 Egyptian revolution.
To start with, there is no Ayatollah Khomeini in Egypt, nor is there an Egyptian Khomeini in the making. The Islamists in Egypt have no charismatic leader. The old-fashioned leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood lack charisma and Khomeini's revolutionary credentials.
Unlike their Iranian counterparts, the Egyptian Islamists are essentially reform-minded and believe in incremental, not revolutionary change. They even opted to join the morbid dialogue with former vice-president Omar Sulaiman. In retrospect, it was a huge political blunder on their part.
In addition, the Iranian revolution was openly anti-American as much as it was an anti-Shah movement. No similar strong anti-American sentiments were heard during the 18-day protests in Tahrir Square.
This time around, the Obama administration unlike the Carter administration played it safe. President Barack Obama was smart enough to demand political change "right now". He also used all the right words when speaking to the jubilant Egyptian crowds after Mubarak's sudden resignation on February 11.
America's role
For once, America was on the people's side. This means that Egypt unlike Iran will not be in a confrontational mode with the US. Moderate Egypt will not allow this to happen. Hence it is unlikely that Egypt go the Iran way.
The most probable future path for Egypt is to fast blossom as the new Middle East tiger. Egypt is most likely to emerge as a liberal state and experience the same rapid growth as the world's newly emerging markets.
Three decades ago, Brazil — the new Latin American tiger — and South Korea and Indonesia — the 21st century Asian tigers — were more or less in a similar economic and sociopolitical position as Egypt is right now.
All these states were governed by authoritarian regimes and had a one-party system. They were ruled by a one man dictator just like Mubarak ruled Egypt for close to 30 years. He made Egypt inward and pathetic looking for a while.
Brazil, South Korea and Indonesia have changed beyond recognition in record time. They are today among the most stable democracies in the south. Each is experiencing rapid economic growth.
Brazil plays a prominent role in the amazing BRIC group that includes Russia, India and China. South Korea is the 14th biggest economy in the world. Indonesia's economic success rivals that of China and India. These three emerging markets have convincingly joined the privileged club of the top 20 economies in the world and were among the founding members of the G20.
They are political role models and economic trendsetters in their immediate geographic sphere. It is not going to be easy, but there is no legitimate reason why Egypt can't repeat the South Korean, Indonesian or Brazilian economic miracle and avoid the dangerous anti-status quo path Iran has taken since 1979.
Egypt has played this role during president Jamal Abdul Nasser's period. Times have changed and so will post-Mubarak Egypt. The Egyptians are by nature an optimistic people.
The momentum for a better future is finally there. Deep inside each Egyptian there is this feeling that Egypt is bound to lead. It is after all Umm Al Donya (mother of the world). They now have the chance to seize the future, live up to this historical responsibility and prove it to themselves and feel proud as they should.
The good news is when Egypt feels proud it makes the entire Arab world proud. From now on it is going to be a bright future not only for the just liberated 83 million Egyptians but also a bright future for the other 250 million Arabs.
At last there is some hope for the long-awaited Arab revival.
Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdullah is professor of political science at Emirates University.
