Abu Dhabi: The imminent birth of a new state in south Sudan would encourage similar secessions in Nigeria, Congo, Angola, Morocco, Yemen and Iraq, said a Sudanese academic on Wednesday.
"The consequences of the division of the largest Afro-Arab country [Sudan] into two states after five decades of conflict might not be limited only to neighbouring countries and may prove influential to all nation states that are built on religious, ethnic or cultural plurality including Nigeria, Congo, Angola, Morocco, Yemen and Iraq," said Dr Ebrahim Elnur, professor of political science at the American University in Cairo.
Dr Elnur, also a coordinator of the Working Group on Reconstruction of War-torn Communities in the Middle East and Africa and the Sudanese Diaspora Group, added Afro-Arab relations may be gravely affected not only in Sudan, but also the Sub-Saharan and Nile Basin regions.
He was speaking after Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir said 99 percent of southern Sudanese have voted for separation in the referendum.
South Sudan Referendum Commission said in Khartoum the primary results of the referendum would be announced on February 2 and the final results were expected to come out on February 7 if there were no appeals, otherwise it would be postponed to February 14.
"This [South Sudan is] an extremely sensitive area because it relates to strategic issues pertinent to water resources, issues of Arab security and the Arab-Israeli conflict," Professor Elnur told the audience at a lecture organised by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research.
Speaking of the challenges of building a new state in southern Sudan, professor Elnur said these included transforming the apparatus of civil war into civil and administrative services capable of running the affairs of the 700,000 square km nascent state and conflict risks that might ensue as a result of a practically non-existent infrastructure in southern Sudan.
He also spoke of a potential civil and tribal strife in the absence of clear strategies for development and lack of organised ownership of agricultural holdings in southern Sudan - an area distinguished by diverse tribal groups and long history of ethnic and tribal conflicts.
While professor Elnur sees the self-determination right in south Sudan has been unanimously agreed by all factions in Sudan, holding the political elites of the successive "totalitarian and pluralistic" regimes that ruled Sudan responsible for the cescession, Professor Ahmad Ebrahim Abu Shouk, a renowned Sudanese historian and author, has said the separation was prompted by foreign interests. "Uganda and Kenya have interests in separation of south Sudan because they would benefit from the rich resources of the south. Israel also has interests in south Sudan separation to get a share in the Nile water, while America as well is seeking for the south cessation to control Sudan's petroleum and replace the Chinese and Malaysian companies with American ones".
On the best scenario after the creation of a new state in south Sudan, professor Elnur said it is friendly and cooperative relations between the two countries, while professor Abu Shouk said he thought unity remained the best option.
Professor Abu Shouk anticipated that "if the south separated, Sudan will be a centre for foreign interventions and the problem will be more complicated than what is currently going on in Iraq. Additionally, the ceiling of the negotiations in Darfur will rise and there could be coalition between Darfur and south Sudan to raise the ceiling of the negotiations, not to mention the eastern front which will also be affected."
Regarding the Nile water, professor Abu Shouk said that "dividing Sudan into two states will open the door for other countries to intervene to push for reformulation of the Nile Water Agreement. In this case Sudan will greatly be affected as the regional and international alliances would be reformulated within the context of the two independent Sudanese states".
However, professor Elnur sees Ethiopia and not south Sudan as the main source of danger to the share of Egypt and Sudan of the Nile water. "A win-win solution can be reached by regional cooperation between the Nile Basin countries particularly Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia," he said.
Professor Elnur said he thought once a new state is created in south Sudan, the regime of Sudan will lose its legitimacy based on the Naivasha Peace Agreement. "Sudan will also face massive economic challenges as three quarters of oil reserves are in south Sudan, and the remaining 150,000 pbd produced in the north can barely meet local consumption needs," he said.
