What we’ve been witnessing in Asia and the emerging markets could just be a “bear-market bounce.”
That’s how JPMorgan Asset Management views the January rally. While Jasslyn Yeo, global market strategist at the money manager, sees the potential for more gains in the first half of the year, investors will need to reassess their positions for the second half.
Slowing economic growth globally is clouding the outlook for stocks even as a potential trade deal between the US and China will help risk-on sentiment, according to Yeo. Moreover, while the Federal Reserve signalled it’s pausing its interest-rate increases, there are still higher odds of hikes than cuts, she said.
“I am not willing to back off on the whole bear-market bounce story because there are increasing downside risks to growth,” she said in an interview Friday. Her firm managed $1.71 trillion of assets as of September. But the rebound could last only in the first half of this year because “we are in such a late stage of the cycle and recession risks have increased,” she said about the US economy.
With a 6.8 per cent rally in January, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index had its best start to a year since 2012. The benchmark gauge for emerging-market equities climbed even more, 8.7 per cent. Both are still marred in bear markets.
While Yeo didn’t provide any stock-market estimates, she said she remains bullish on Asian shares excluding Japan and emerging markets in general for the first half of the year. Her reasoning: There’s a higher chance of a US-China trade agreement this time around as President Donald Trump faces a reelection bid in 2020 and the world’s second-biggest economy is slowing. Trump said he may meet soon with his Chinese counterpart to finalise details of a deal.