Strait of Hormuz on edge: Why this narrow waterway matters as Iran readies live-fire naval drills from Feb 1

Dubai: The Strait of Hormuz, a slender maritime passage separating Iran from Oman, has once again become the centre of global geopolitical tension.

At its narrowest, this strategically vital strait spans just about 33km (21 miles), yet it serves as the gateway between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, linking major oil-producing states with international markets.

Roughly a fifth of the world’s traded crude oil flows through these waters — a proportion so large that even fleeting disruptions can send shockwaves through global energy markets and inflation indices.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced plans to conduct a two-day, live-fire naval exercise in the Strait beginning February 1 — a move confirmed by multiple media outlets.

The drills, which have drawn maritime warnings and notices to shipping, risk intruding into internationally used traffic lanes that bind global commerce.

10 key facts about the Strait of Hormuz

• It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman

• Narrowest width: about 33 km (21 miles)

• One of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints

• Roughly 20% of global oil trade passes through it daily

• Also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, especially from Qatar

• Shipping lanes are just a few kilometres wide in each direction

• Deep enough to handle the world’s largest oil supertankers (VLCCs)

• Most Gulf oil exports have no alternative route

• Any disruption can trigger global oil price spikes

• It is considered an international waterway, despite bordering nations’ territorial waters

In response, the United States Central Command has publicly cautioned Tehran to conduct the exercise in a safe, professional manner and avoid behaviour that could jeopardise commercial vessels or American and allied naval forces.

The backdrop to this stand-off is a wider bruising of US-Iran relations. From Iran’s domestic protests and diplomatic isolation to US deployments — including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the nearby Arabian Sea — both capitals are on heightened alert.

What happens if the Strait of Hormuz is closed or disrupted?

• If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — even briefly — the consequences could be global:

• Oil prices would surge sharply within hours, as nearly 20% of global supply is affected

• Fuel costs worldwide would rise, hitting transport, food prices, and inflation

• Energy-importing nations in Asia and Europe would face immediate supply stress

• Shipping routes would be forced to reroute, causing delays and higher freight costs

• Insurance premiums for vessels would spike, raising trade costs

• Stock markets could tumble, especially energy-sensitive sectors

• Strategic oil reserves may be released by major economies to stabilise prices

• Risk of wider military conflict in the Gulf would increase

• Global economic growth could slow if disruption lasts

• Developing countries would feel the biggest impact from rising fuel and food prices

Regional partners, including Gulf Arab states, are urging restraint, warning that any misstep could destabilise broader Middle East security and global energy markets.

Against this backdrop of mounting warnings and military posturing, here’s a closer look at what’s unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz — and why it matters.

Timeline: When the Strait of Hormuz faced blockades, threats & major disruptions

• 1980–1988 | Iran-Iraq War (“Tanker War”)

• Both Iran and Iraq attacked oil tankers in the Gulf.

• Dozens of ships were damaged or sunk.

• While not fully closed, traffic through Hormuz was severely disrupted.

• 2011–2012 | Iranian closure threats

• Iran repeatedly threatened to block the strait in response to Western sanctions over its nuclear programme.

• No physical closure occurred, but oil prices surged on fears alone.

• 2019 | Tanker attacks & seizures

• Multiple oil tankers were attacked or seized near the strait.

• The US and allies blamed Iran.

• Shipping insurance costs spiked; some vessels rerouted.

• 2020 | US-Iran standoff

• After the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, Iran again threatened Hormuz.

• Heightened naval patrols; no full closure.

• 2023 | Increased harassment incidents

• Iranian forces intercepted commercial ships amid regional tensions involving Israel and Gaza.

• Short-term shipping delays reported.

• 2024 | Drone and missile fears

• Regional conflicts raised repeated warnings of Hormuz disruption, though shipping continued.

• 2026 | Live-fire naval drills near shipping lanes

• Iran announces exercises that could enter commercial traffic routes.

• The US issues safety warnings.

• Markets remain on edge over possible escalation.

Is Iran actually going ahead with the naval drills?

Yes. Iran has publicly confirmed that the IRGC naval forces will conduct a two-day, live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz beginning February 1. This has been widely reported in both Iranian and international media.

Why are these drills significant?

The Strait is one of the world’s most important chokepoints for oil transport. Roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil — amounting to tens of millions of barrels per day — passes through this narrow corridor. Disruption, even temporary, can spike energy prices and shock global markets.

What has the United States said about Iran’s plans?

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has issued a stern statement urging Iran to conduct the exercises safely and professionally. While acknowledging Iran’s right to operate in international waters, CENTCOM warned against any “unsafe or unprofessional behaviour” near US forces, regional partners, or commercial vessels.

What behaviours does Washington say it will not tolerate?

CENTCOM specifically cautioned against:

Low-altitude or armed overflights of US military assets

High-speed boat approaches on collision courses with US ships

Weapons pointed at US forces

Any actions endangering commercial or allied vessels

It added that it will ensure the safety of US personnel, ships, and aircraft in the region.

What is the broader context of US-Iran tensions?

Tensions have multiple roots, including:

Iran’s recent domestic protests and its government’s crackdown

Ongoing international concern about Iran’s nuclear programme

A heavy US military presence — including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group — deployed nearby

Iran’s warnings that it could retaliate if struck by US or Israeli forces

Arab Gulf states and other regional partners have urged restraint, warning that even misunderstandings in the Strait could escalate into wider conflict.

Could these drills threaten shipping traffic?

Official notices to mariners have flagged that the live-fire drills could overlap with crucial shipping lanes. If not carefully managed, live weapons exercises near standard traffic separation schemes could disrupt commercial traffic and increase insurance costs, shipping delays, and investor nervousness.

What are the possible consequences of an escalation?

Analysts warn that any escalation — including accidental clashes — could disrupt oil supplies, send prices sharply upward, and provoke wider regional insecurity. Previous periods of tension in the Strait have already shown how sensitive global markets are to threats in this waterway.