Economist who predicted last 3 World Cups correctly says Ronaldo will knock out Messi and Netherlands will win

When Paul the Octopus correctly predicted all of Germany's matches at the 2010 FIFA World Cup, he became a global sensation. Gulf News even had its own predictor, Shaheen the Camel, but unlike Paul, the desert oracle could not get everything right.

Now, however, a German economist may have outdone them both.

According to various reports, economist Joachim Klement has developed a statistical model that has correctly predicted the last three World Cup winners. The model backed Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022. For the 2026 tournament, it predicts the Netherlands will finally lift the trophy.

If that happens, Klement's model would have successfully predicted four consecutive World Cup winners, an incredible achievement given how unpredictable football can be.

The model goes much deeper than simply picking a champion. It maps out the entire tournament and predicts several surprises along the way. Among them are Japan defeating Brazil in the Round of 32 and South Korea knocking out Scotland at the same stage.

There is also a blockbuster quarter final prediction that will immediately catch the attention of football fans. Klement's model forecasts an Argentina versus Portugal showdown, potentially setting up the final World Cup meeting between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

And it does not stop there. The model predicts Portugal will edge past the defending champions, ending Messi's hopes of retaining the trophy and keeping Ronaldo's World Cup dream alive.

England are tipped to reach the semi finals before falling to Portugal, bringing back memories of their painful World Cup exit against the Portuguese in 2006.

Can the Netherlands finally do it?

There is one major catch, though.

These predictions were made before Xavi Simons suffered an ACL injury, a massive blow for the Dutch ahead of the World Cup. The Netherlands also head into the tournament after a surprise friendly defeat to Algeria, where Luca Zidane, son of French legend Zinedine Zidane, produced a series of crucial saves in goal.

Ronald Koeman has his critics as well.

That said, this Dutch side has plenty going for it. The defence looks solid, the midfield is dynamic and packed with quality. The bigger question is where the goals are going to come from.

Donyell Malen has been in excellent form since his move to Roma from Aston Villa. Then there is Memphis Depay, the Netherlands' all time leading goalscorer, now playing in Brazil. Cody Gakpo remains one of Liverpool's biggest attacking threats, while Crysencio Summerville can trouble any defence on his day.

But do they have enough goals in them to win a World Cup?

It is worth remembering that Spain won the 2010 World Cup by scoring just eight goals and conceding only twice throughout the tournament. They beat the Netherlands in the final and proved that a team built on defensive solidity and midfield control can go all the way.

The Dutch have always been football's nearly men. From the Johan Cruyff era to the heartbreak of the 2010 final, they have repeatedly come close without getting their hands on the trophy. This time there is not much glamour or hype around them compared to some of the other favourites, and perhaps that could actually work in their favour.

If Joachim Klement gets this prediction right, it is going to feel like a miracle.

Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo fans will certainly hope he does not. After all, millions are dreaming of seeing Ronaldo lift the one major trophy that has always eluded him. But if the Dutch finally end their long wait, Klement's remarkable forecasting streak will become one of the most extraordinary stories of World Cup folklore.