IPL playoffs: 3 teams in, 5 more with a chance for remaining spot

Up until Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s (RCB) win against Punjab Kings (PBKS) on Sunday afternoon, none of the playoff spots in the Indian Premier League (IPL) had been decided even after 60 matches, meaning 8 of the 10 teams were all in with a chance of being among the top-four finishers. The only thing certain at that point was that Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) had been eliminated.

Then it all dramatically changed in the space of just two matches.

Following Sunrisers Hyderabad’s (SRH) victory over Chennai Super Kings (CSK) on Monday night, three of the eight teams in contention have now booked their playoff places. SRH’s win on Monday saw them move to 16 points from 13 matches, the same as Gujarat Titans (GT), with both teams going through.

RCB’s win on Sunday took them to the top of the table with 18 points from 13 matches and in prime position to play Qualifier 1 between the top two teams, the winner of which goes straight into the final. The third and fourth-placed teams will play the Eliminator with the winner of that match playing the loser of Qualifier 1 for a place in the final.

GT’s match against CSK tomorrow and SRH’s match against RCB the following day will decide the top-two finishers. RCB will finish in the top two regardless of their result against SRH if CSK beat GT or if they defeat SRH.

It is up to GT to win their final game and hope SRH lose to RCB to get into the top two. If they win and RCB lose, then the top two places will be decided by the net run rate among the three teams, with all on 18 points. Currently RCB are on a healthy +1.065, GT have +0.400 and SRH +0.350.

With just one more spot to fill and with two matches to play, Rajasthan Royals (RR) are the only side who have their fate in their own hands as they are currently sitting on 12 points after 12 matches. They play the already eliminated sides LSG and MI in their last two matches and should secure the final qualification spot if they win both and finish on 16 points.

If that happens, it doesn’t matter what the other four teams still in with a chance do in their matches. In a scenario where RR stumble, PBKS, on 13 points, can still make it through if they beat LSG, along with a loss for RR at least once and for CSK in their last match, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) also need to falter and finish below PBKS on net run rate.

CSK are on 12 points with one game to play against GT and will finish on 14 if they win. In the event of RR losing both their matches, and DC winning their last match against KKR, it is going to go down to net run rate and CSK currently hold the advantage. DC's chances of qualification are minimal because of their poor net run rate of -0.871 and they require a win over KKR to get to 14 points and also an LSG win over PBKS while praying RR and CSK both lose their remaining matches.

KKR have two games remaining in the tournament and are mathematically still alive. If they win both and finish on 15 points and if RR lose one match and PBKS either lose their game or finish below KKR on net run rate, the Kolkata side go through. They could finish on 13 points and still qualify on net run rate if they manage to beat DC while RR lose both their remaining fixtures and PBKS lose to LSG.

With so many permutations and combinations in the remaining seven matches for the final playoff spot, the battle is only likely to heat up in the next few days.