Asia Cup: ‘Group of Death’ set to come alive with a final twist

It wasn’t for nothing that Group B was given the moniker ‘Group of Death’ even before the Asia Cup began. And boy, has it lived up to its billing! Just one group match remains and while Sri Lanka are in the driver’s seat, nobody is any the wiser as to which two of the three teams still in the reckoning will progress to the Super Four.

Bangladesh added to the twist on Tuesday by beating Afghanistan, although they didn’t do themselves any favours in terms of their net run rate which stands at -0.270. It means that both Afghanistan with a healthy net run rate of +2.150, and Sri Lanka with +1.546, have their fortunes firmly in their own hands, while Bangladesh can only hope and pray that Charith Asalanka’s side continues its winning ways.

As for Rashid Khan’s men, well, they still have everything to play for with their vastly superior run rate, and a win will be good enough to take them through.

Here’s a look at the possible scenarios that can unfold today…

Scenario 1: Sri Lanka beat Afghanistan

If Sri Lanka beat Afghanistan, the equation becomes quite straightforward. The Islanders finish with 6 points, top the group, and are through, along with Bangladesh who have 4 points, notwithstanding their poor net run rate. Afghanistan, after their strong start against Hong Kong, follow the Far East Asians out of the tournament.

Scenario 2: Afghanistan beat Sri Lanka

If Afghanistan beat Sri Lanka, they will go through on what is already a very good net run rate that will be bolstered by the win. And they will carry the Lions with them on net run rate, while Bangladesh, despite also having 4 points, will bow out.

For Bangladesh to advance in this scenario, Afghanistan will have to defeat Sri Lanka by a huge margin. A Sri Lankan collapse or a lightning chase by the Afghans will be the only way the Bangla Tigers can make it through. But then, given their appalling net run rate, it is highly unlikely that even a heavy defeat will push Sri Lanka’s net run rate below -0.270.

Momentum matters

The very fact that Sri Lanka are almost as good as through to the Super Four could lull them into a false sense of security. They will want to keep their winning run going to try and finish on top of the group and needless to stay, all Bangladeshi cricket fans will be rooting for them both in Abu Dhabi and around the world. The Lions didn’t quite have things their own way in their opener against minnows Hong Kong, but managed to up their game against Bangladesh, signs that the six-time Asia Cup and ‘defending T20 Asia Cup’ champions are peaking at the right time.

Below par so far

Yes, Afghanistan did hammer Hong Kong in their opener, but that was only to be expected. What wasn’t expected was their struggle against the Bangladeshi spinners while chasing a par score. That has left them in a must-win situation against Sri Lanka and while they possess the firepower to blow away Bangladesh’s hopes, they need to get it all together when it really matters.

So, get ready for a high-stakes encounter, one that is poised to reveal the last pieces of the Group B puzzle.