UAE or India? Where gold offers better value for expats or travellers this Eid

Dubai: Gold buyers travelling between the UAE and India are increasingly finding that Dubai remains the cheaper market for jewellery and bullion purchases, as rising import duties and rupee depreciation continue pushing prices higher in India.

The price gap has widened sharply in 2026 after India increased customs duty on gold imports from 6 per cent to 15 per cent effective May 13, according to an ICICI Bank Global Markets report.

At the same time, the Indian rupee has weakened around 7 per cent this year, amplifying the impact of rising global bullion prices on local retail rates.

According to live rates, UAE gold prices on Tuesday stood near Dh504.75 per gram for 22K and Dh545.25 for 24K gold. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

In India, domestic gold prices have climbed close to Rs145,650 per 10 grams for 22K and around Rs158,890 for 24K gold, reflecting the impact of import duties, currency depreciation and elevated international rates.

India prices to stay up

The ICICI Bank Global Markets report said Indian gold prices are likely to remain elevated through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

“We subsequently expect local gold prices to trade in the INR150,000 per ten grams to INR180,000 per ten grams range over the remainder of 2026 assuming an average USD/INR range of 96.00,” the report said.

For 2027, the bank expects prices to rise further toward INR160,000-INR190,000 per 10 grams. The report added that the domestic market has already rallied around 20 per cent year-to-date.

“This sharp growth stems primarily from a 7 per cent depreciation of the Rupee so far this year, rising international rates, and the immediate pass-through of recent customs duty hikes,” the report said.

Analysts also warned that Indian prices could rise another 2-3 per cent in the near term as the market continues adjusting to the higher customs duty regime. That has strengthened Dubai’s appeal among Indian travellers and expatriates purchasing jewellery, coins and investment bars.

Dubai prices get edge up

Dubai has historically maintained a pricing advantage because of lower taxation, transparent pricing structures and intense competition among retailers in the emirate’s gold market.

The UAE’s dirham peg to the US dollar also provides more pricing stability compared with rupee-denominated purchases during periods of Indian currency weakness.

Travellers purchasing gold in Dubai still need to account for customs allowances and declaration rules when entering India. Even so, jewellers say many buyers continue to see cost advantages on plain gold jewellery and bullion products purchased in the UAE.

Dubai gold rates have remained volatile through 2026 alongside global market swings. Historical data shows 22K gold prices in Dubai moved above Dh526 per gram earlier this month before retreating toward the Dh500 range.

Will prices keep rising?

Despite recent pullbacks, ICICI Bank Global Markets expects gold to remain supported over the medium term, although prices may move sideways in the near term because of a stronger US dollar and continued geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

“Gold prices can potentially go up as lower oil prices ensure need for fewer rate hikes by central banks along with demand for physical asset sustaining,” the report said.

The bank expects gold to trade between $4,400 and $4,600 an ounce in the near term, while warning that prices could briefly fall toward $4,200 if regional tensions intensify further.

Over the longer term, analysts remain bullish, forecasting gold could rise toward $4,800-$5,000 an ounce by December 2026 and potentially $5,400-$5,600 by the end of 2027.

“The global USD could come under pressure in the medium-term that will increase appetite for non-USD assets,” the report added, citing continued central bank buying and safe-haven demand for bullion. Higher prices are already beginning to affect gold buying patterns in India

Is Indian demand slowing?

The report said India recorded an 81 per cent rise in gold import values in April, but much of the increase reflected higher prices rather than stronger physical demand. Import volumes slowed to around 30 tonnes during March and April, compared with a monthly average of 50 tonnes in 2025.

For UAE-based buyers, analysts expect Dubai to maintain its relative pricing advantage because local gold rates remain more closely aligned with international spot prices, while Indian domestic prices continue absorbing the impact of higher import duties and rupee depreciation.

That divergence is expected to keep the UAE attractive for jewellery and bullion purchases, particularly among travellers seeking lower premiums, wider product variety and more transparent pricing structures.

Globally, analysts still expect gold to remain in a structurally bullish cycle supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation and long-term safe-haven demand, even as short-term volatility linked to oil prices and US monetary policy continues.