WTI oil price jumps 8% as Middle East tensions rattle global markets

Global oil prices have rallied early on Thursday with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil April contract closing at $94.23 per barrel as on 11.56 GMT Wednesday (March 11), 8.56 am Tokyo (March 12), a 8% daily spike that underscores mounting anxiety over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude was up nearly 5% to $91.98 per barrel, an increase of $4.18.

The latest rally marks a volatile year for crude amid the US-Israel-Iran war.

Murban Ccrude for May 2026 delivery, however, was down (-1.17%) to $98.41, as of 00.19 GMT (Thursday, March 12), as per oilprice.com live data.

Prices that hovered between $70 and $80 per barrel in mid-2025 collapsed to nearly $50 by December 2025, as markets braced for a massive supply glut driven by rising production in the United States and Brazil.

At the time, analysts warned that global output could exceed demand by 3–4 million barrels per day, pushing prices lower.

Outlook flips

But the market’s outlook flipped dramatically since then. From January, oil prices began a steady climb, breaking $100 per barrel by March as geopolitical tensions escalated.

Traders cited intensifying confrontation between the United States and Iran and disruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass, driving crude oil price volatility.

Any prolonged disruption in this narrow passage could remove millions of barrels of oil from global supply.

Forecast for 2026

Futures markets amplified the surge, with analysts pointing to a historic short squeeze as traders scrambled to cover bearish positions.

In one session alone, crude prices jumped nearly $12, highlighting the market’s extreme volatility.

Overnight on Thursday, the US Energy Department announced the release 172 million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve, following an earlier announcement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that its members will release 400 million barrels from their own strategic oil reserves.

Forecasts for the rest of 2026, however, remain divided.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects prices to cool later in the year as supply routes normalize and US production rises to about 13.6 million barrels per day. Investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs still see average prices closer to $52–$56, assuming global supply remains ample.

If Middle East disruptions persist...

However, analysts warn that if Middle East disruptions persist, oil could trade between $90 and $110, with extreme scenarios pushing prices even higher.

For now, the oil market has swung from fears of oversupply to worries about shortages — illustrating just how quickly geopolitics can reshape global energy markets, as well as prices of goods and service.