Dubai: UAE fuel prices for April 2026 are due next, and the latest oil market move points to a possible change in direction. After petrol and diesel became bit more expensive in March, oil prices fell sharply as signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran reduced fears of an immediate supply disruption.
The UAE reviews petrol and diesel prices at the end of every month to reflect changes in global fuel markets. Historical data also shows that local fuel prices have moved up and down often over the past year, tracking international oil trends closely.
Oil prices had surged on fears of a wider conflict in the Gulf and possible disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. But the latest move has been sharply lower.
That said, the broader picture is more complex. Despite the recent drop, oil prices remain significantly higher than a month ago — up roughly 35% to 43% compared to late February levels, depending on the benchmark. Brent has been trading near $101, while US crude has held close to $90, even after the latest pullback.
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Market analysts say the decline reflects easing immediate fears, not a full return to normal conditions. Abdelaziz Albogdady, Market Research & Fintech Strategy Manager at FXEM, said oil prices fell after the US paused planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, but warned that markets remain highly volatile.
“While the latest pullback reflects easing immediate fears, the overall risk environment remains elevated, limiting the scope for a sustained decline. Disruptions to energy infrastructure and logistics are still a key driver for the market, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to most shipping traffic, constraining exports from one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes,” Albogdady added.
“A prolonged restriction in flows through the waterway could tighten global supply further and renew upward pressure on prices. Looking ahead, efforts to de-escalate and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on oil prices if successful, as the return of normal shipping activity would ease supply concerns. However, risks remain skewed to the upside, and any renewed escalation or fresh threats could quickly push prices higher again, keeping volatility elevated in the near term."
This matters because the earlier jump in oil was driven mainly by geopolitical risk, not by a sudden global shortage of crude. Even after the drop, the market remains elevated compared to February levels.
Right now, the latest oil move suggests reduced immediate upward pressure, but not a clear move toward lower prices.
The sharp fall in crude means another strong increase in April fuel prices looks less likely than it did during the recent spike. However, because oil prices are still much higher than a month ago, a noticeable drop in pump prices is unlikely.
If oil stabilises near current levels, April fuel prices are more likely to stay close to March levels, with limited room for a noticeable drop.
At the same time, the outlook remains sensitive to developments in the Gulf. Any renewed disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz or escalation in tensions could quickly reverse the recent decline and push prices higher again.
For drivers in the UAE, the latest signal is mixed but more stable than during the peak of the recent rally.
A sharp rise in April fuel prices now looks less likely.
Stable prices appear more likely, with only a small chance of a drop.
Prices are more likely to stay close to March levels or move slightly, depending on how oil trends settle.
(This forecast is based on current oil price movements, market trends, and the latest reported developments. Actual UAE petrol and diesel prices are set by the UAE Fuel Price Committee and may still change depending on how global oil markets move before the official announcement.)
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