Oil dips again on Iran talks hopes, but physical Gulf crude climbs

Crude futures slipped Monday as Trump signaled he is unlikely to order new strikes on Iran while talks progress.

Physical Murban crude, however, rose more than 3%, a sign that real-world barrels remain tight.

According to industry tracking site Oilprice.com, Brent futures were at $97.49 a barrel, down 83 cents, or 0.84%, as of 9:27 am Beijing time on Nov. 9, 2026.

WTI futures fell 35 cents, or 0.39%, to $90.48.

Murban physical crude rose $3.28, or 3.42%, to $99.17, which puts it about $1.70 above Brent futures. Natural gas futures eased 0.20% to $2.992.

Oil fell at Monday’s open after Trump said it was highly unlikely he would order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progress, even as both countries reported shipping hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has also acknowledged that the unpopular conflict, which has driven up oil and petrol prices, contributed to the Republican midterm defeat.

The decline extends a steep slide.

Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday after losing more than 16% on the week, its steepest weekly fall since 2020, while WTI fell nearly 13%.

The sell-off reflects bets on US-Iran de-escalation after the election, but the conflict is not resolved.

The physical market tells a different story. A tanker was reported burning after a strike in the Strait of Hormuz on Nov. 8.

IMF PortWatch recorded one vessel transit on Nov. 1, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day. Murban’s jump suggests buyers are paying up for Gulf supply even as futures fall.

Physical quotes can be thin and volatile.

Cheaper crude eases import costs for oil-importing economies like India, China, Pakistan, the Philippines, driving inflation.

But the physical-futures gap shows supply risks remain.

What’s next

Watch US-Iran talks and any Hormuz incidents, plus Tuesday’s US inflation data.

A deal could extend the slide, while new tanker attacks or a strike decision could reverse it quickly.