Far-right surge in Germany signals shifting political tides

In a striking development, voters in the eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony have propelled the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to its most significant electoral success since World War II.

The outcome of these state elections has ignited deep concerns among political analysts, signalling a resurgence of nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiment, not just within Germany, but across the broader European landscape.

The AfD, a party known for its vehement anti-immigrant rhetoric, has been steadily gaining ground since its inception 11 years ago. It first captured the public’s attention following former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to admit over a million migrants from the Middle East.

Despite being monitored by domestic intelligence for its potential threat to Germany’s constitutional order, the AfD secured nearly a third of the vote in Thuringia (32.8%) and over 30% in Saxony. This marks the party’s strongest performance to date.

This electoral success underscores a growing dissatisfaction among German voters, particularly in the east, with the unchecked influx of migrants and the perceived strain it places on the nation’s social and economic fabric.

Despite their electoral gains, the AfD faces formidable challenges in translating this success into actual political power. All mainstream parties in Germany have unequivocally ruled out forming coalitions with the AfD, effectively sidelining the party from any meaningful role in state governance.

However, with such a strong showing, the AfD could still exert considerable influence, particularly in obstructing key legislative actions that require a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges and senior security officials.

Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the political spectrum, the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has also made a significant impact. This left-wing populist party, which shares some of the AfD’s stances on immigration and opposes military support for Ukraine, garnered over 15% of the vote in Thuringia and more than 11% in Saxony.

The rapid rise of the BSW, a party less than a year old, highlights a growing disenchantment with Germany’s traditional political parties, particularly Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.

Rise of AfD and BSW

The success of both the AfD and BSW in these state elections is a clear signal that Germany’s political landscape is undergoing a shift. The ruling coalition of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party suffered losses, underscoring their declining appeal, not just in the former East Germany, but nationwide.

As Germany braces for the next federal election, it is increasingly clear that the country is drifting rightward, with stricter immigration controls and a renewed focus on revitalising the economy likely to dominate the political discourse.

This trend is not confined to Germany alone. Across Europe, similar movements are gaining traction, as evidenced in France, where right-wing parties are making significant headway. The resurgence of nationalist and anti-immigrant ideologies in these regions reflects broader anxieties about economic stagnation, cultural transformation, and the impacts of globalisation.

While the AfD’s victory in Thuringia and Saxony is undoubtedly troubling for those concerned about the rise of far-right politics, its immediate impact on national governance may be limited by the firm refusal of other parties to engage with it.

Nevertheless, the outcome of these elections will likely shape the strategies of Germany’s mainstream parties as they prepare for the national elections. The AfD’s rise may compel these parties to adopt more conservative stances in an effort to reclaim disenchanted voters.

Recent elections in Thuringia and Saxony have sent shock waves through Germany’s political establishment. The strong performances by both the far-right AfD and the left-wing BSW reveal a growing discontent with the status quo. As Germany and Europe navigate these shifting political currents, the coming months will be key in determining the future of the region.

Ahmad Nazir is a UAE based freelance writer, with a degree in education from the Université de Montpellier in Southern France