Manila: The Philippines might be disappointed with US President Barack Obama’s continuing softness towards China, its flexing of maritime might in the South China Sea, because of its influence to temper erupting problems from North Korea and Russia, analysts predicted.
Obama, who will arrive in Manila on Monday for a two-day visit starting Monday is expected to raise with Philippine President Benigno Aquino issues on corruption, human rights violations (political killings) and human trafficking.
Activists see these concerns as “tactical pressures” for Aquino to finalise an eight-month long negotiation between US and the Philippines for the forging of a proposed Agreement on Enhanced Defence Cooperation (AEDC), which would make the Philippines a perfect platform for US strategic rebalancing in Asia Pacific.
It would sit well with Aquino’s long call for the modernisation of his country’s weak Armed Forces with US assistance. It would help the Philippines properly deter China’s flexing of its maritime might in the South China Sea. China had overtaken one shoal and one reef located within the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, the West Philippine Sea, in the South China Sea, in 1995 and 2012.
Centring their criticism of the Obama-Aquino meeting on alleged fast-tracking of the AEDC, left-leaning activists said it was expected as a gift to Obama, during his state visit that would end on Tuesday.
There are indications, however, that the AEDC, if it is forged and signed during Obama’s Manila visit, “might turn a dud” given Obama’s concern with other geopolitical issues that erupted while he was in Japan and Malaysia.
US’s desire for a rebalance in Asia-Pacific has been “softly-padded” with a realisation that US and Europe need China’s cooperation in handling threats coming from North Korea and Russia.
“Suddenly, China, a virtual for its rise to power in Asia-Pacific, must be treated well for its influence to contain North Korea and Russia,” said analyst Alfredo Crespo, adding, “The area of rebalancing is getting bigger, where China has become as a necessary giant that must also be satisfied.”
China, Taiwan, and Vietnam claim the whole of the South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, and Philippines claim some parts of the Spratly Archipelago off the South China Sea, based on the provision of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that grants countries 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zones starting from their shores.
Obama’s Manila visit could place into a proper perspective the South China Sea issue, said another analyst Prospero De Vera.
The US is expected to show that the South China Sea issue could be treated as a regional problem, that it must be resolved by China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean); that a mechanism for it has been in place.
On November 4, 2002, China and Asean signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (Docs).
China and Asean are trying to make the Docs a more legally binding document.
Obama’s Manila visit will bring to Filipino leaders and residents a larger perspective of US’s geopolitical concern, which became clearer during his visit in Japan and Malaysia, De Vera explained.
Last Friday, Obama convened a meeting with European leaders to discuss sanctions on Russia over its takeover of Ukraine. China and Russia have been engaged in joint war games. But the US has sought China’s assistance to help soften Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. As a result, China did not vote during a meeting of the United Nations Security Council to condemn Russia’s action in Ukraine. China has a permanent seat on the Security Council.
Defying a permanent international ban, North Korea announced plans to undertake a fourth test of atomic weapons. China has been supporting North Korea, economically, even it has voted through the Security Council for economic sanction.
All of these things happened while Obama was in his Asian tour. “They should serve as a 101 for all of us about US’ geopolitical concern,” said Crespo.
Earlier, Obama aborted his visit to Malaysia and the Philippines during a Washington shutdown last October.
