Dubai: Amid Catalonia’s declaration of independence from Spain on Friday there remains widespread uncertainty over what happens next, not least in football where Barcelona could be expelled from La Liga.

Neither the Spanish government nor the international community recognise the recent declaration, and Madrid has imposed direct rule on the autonomous region, dissolving the Catalan parliament, and forcing the Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont into exile, while calling for fresh elections on December 21.

La Liga president Javier Tebas has been unflinching in his view that Barcelona would have to leave the Spanish league if Catalonia became independent, while Barcelona president Josep Maria Bartomeu has said the club wishes to remain in La Liga, despite the club being a symbol of Catalan pride. 

Here Ashley Hammond takes a look at what might happen to Spanish football if La Liga follows through on their threat, and where Barcelona might have to go if they are expelled.

With Barcelona contributing so much towards Spanish football and the economy, both through their rivalry with Real Madrid and dominance in Europe, and production of talent for Spain’s much-celebrated national team, it looks like a no-win all round if they were to leave.


WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BARCELONA LEFT LA LIGA?

No more El Clasico

El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona is said to attract a global audience of 650 million people worldwide. La Liga wants to reach a total global audience for the whole season of three billion by the end of 2017/18. Based on the fact Barcelona and Real Madrid meet twice in a league season, El Clasico would therefore account for a global audience of 1.3 billion per league season, or 43 per cent of La Liga’s total global viewership per season. Not discounting the fact that a large chunk of the other 57 per cent of games being viewed include Barcelona, La Liga stands to lose a lot if Barcelona leaves. And it’s not just La Liga, but also the Spanish economy. Domestic football makes up 0.75 per cent ($9 billion) of Spain’s $1.2 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and that figure was expected to rise to 1.63 per cent ($20 billion) by the end of 2019.

La Liga left weakened

Between them Barcelona and Real Madrid have shared 57 out of a total 86 top-flight Spanish league titles (nine out of the past 10). Real have won a record total 33 titles, while second-best Barca have 24. They have both used their cultural and political rivalry — with Real Madrid historically being the nationalist club, and Barca being republican — to spur each other on to greater heights. Get rid of one in that equation and everyone suffers. It wouldn’t just be Barcelona leaving La Liga with Catalonian independence though. Girona and Espanyol are both Catalan, and if independence starts a domino effect with other regions breaking away from Spain, Basque sides Athletic Bilbao, Eibar, Alaves and Real Sociedad could also leave, as well as Galician sides, Deportivo La Coruna and Celta Vigo.

Brand power wilts

Barcelona and Real Madrid are fourth and fifth in the Forbes list of most valuable sport franchises for 2017 behind the Dallas Cowboys, the New York Yankees and Manchester United. Barcelona are worth $3.64 billion and Real are worth US$3.58 billion. In terms of annual revenue, Real’s is $800 million and Barca’s is $770 million. $160 million of that each comes from TV money, while the rest comes from things such as merchandising and sponsorship. Neither club would have that brand power if it weren’t for each other, however. And if Barcelona were to leave La Liga both clubs would be severely affected. This isn’t such an enticing prospect given that both clubs have published debts of around $250-300 million and both are currently redeveloping their stadiums to the tune of around $600 million.

Spanish dominance in Europe ends

More money means better players equals dominance and nowhere is dominance more meaningful for both clubs than in Europe. Between them Real Madrid and Barcelona have shared the past four Champions League titles (Real three and Barca one). And over a total 62 seasons in Europe, Spain has produced the most winners 17 (12 by Real Madrid and five from Barcelona). Take Barcelona out of La Liga and you won’t just see a decline in competitiveness but also income. If the spectacle of El Clasico is taken out of La Liga, so goes the attention and the money. The best players will no longer go to Spain because they won’t earn the same in salary and endorsements and the pinnacle, where this vacuum will be most noticeable is in European dominance and the Champions League. And just as taking Barcelona out of La Liga will affect Spanish competitiveness, disrupting Spanish dominance will also lower standards Europe-wide, although it might give others a chance it may not be as attractive.

Spanish national team affected

Spain won two European Championships in 2008 and 2012 either side of the 2010 World Cup with a team that was widely considered by pundits to be one of the greatest international sides to have ever graced a football pitch. Of that 23-man 2010 World Cup winning squad, seven were Catalan-born, including Carles Puyol, Xavi, Cesc Fabregas, Victor Valdes and Gerard Pique. Only two of the recent 22-man squad that recently played in qualifiers this month are Catalan, Marc Batra and Jordi Alba, but a further four are Basque and one is from Galicia. It wouldn’t take a great deal of imagination to see how independence for these regions might not only break up the country but also the dominance of its national team.