Is it possible to detect and avoid air turbulence, to enhance safety and comfort during flights and avoid fatal or severe injuries?
It turns out it's possible. But it depends which kind of turbulence. Turbulance has many "faces". Currently, pilots employ a range of sophisticated methods to avoid this menace of the skies.
A primary tool at pilots' disposal is the weather radar display. This allows them to detect and navigate around storm systems. This enables them identify areas of heavy precipitation and turbulence, with which pilots make informed decisions about altering their flight path.
Pilots also rely on real-time weather reports and forecasts from met services. These reports provide valuable information about potential turbulence along the planned route, allowing pilots to adjust their altitude or course proactively.
Visual cues
Visual cues also play a critical role. Thunderstorms, which are visible to the naked eye, can often be circumvented by altering the flight path. Pilots are trained to recognise specific cloud formations (i.e. cumulonimbus clouds, which are commonly associated with severe turbulence).
By steering clear of these visual indicators, pilots can avoid the most turbulent areas.
Moreover, pilots receive continuous updates and guidance from air traffic control (ATC) and airline dispatchers, who monitor weather patterns and turbulence reports. This collaborative approach ensures that pilots have the most current information and can make real-time adjustments to avoid turbulent conditions.
Despite these methods, turbulence can sometimes be unpredictable. Advances in technology, such as turbulence prediction models and improved radar systems, are continuously being developed to enhance turbulence detection and avoidance capabilities. While these innovations hold promise for smoother flights in the future, the combination of existing tools and pilot expertise currently provides a robust defense against turbulence.
Clear-air turbulence
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is proving the toughest to predict. Apart from pilot reports, CAT happens with zero warning.
Severe turbulence involves intense and unpredictable air movements that can cause sudden and violent changes in an aircraft's altitude, attitude, and airspeed.
This can result from thunderstorms, mountain waves, or jet streams and poses significant risks to passengers and crew. CAT is considered as an "invisible menace", frequently striking at the high-altitude jet streams. Planes can withstand these rough patches, but the journey can be daunting for passengers.
It often results from differing speeds in air masses. CAT specifically occurs in cloudless skies at high altitudes. CAT is particularly dangerous because it provides no visual warning.
Turbulence avoidance
A number of agencies, including the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and airlines, are also developing technology to help pilots avoid turbulence encounters.
While knowing that turbulence is ahead doesn't always allow pilots to avoid it, this information can alert passengers and flight attendants to fasten their seat belts.
The FAA funds this research. Nasa is also reportedly developing an early-warning system, to help pilots anticipate and avoid in-flight turbulence. Such a gear that would give jets the solution to ensure completely smooth flights is still many years away, say experts.
It’s still best to stay in your seat with the belt buckled up.
163
Number of people seriously injured from in-flight turbulence from 2009-2022It also depends on which type of turbulence and the sector you're flying. Certain routes are infamous for their turbulent rides, demanding resilience and preparation from passengers and crew alike.
The world's bumpiest routes
From the notorious Santiago to Santa Cruz route, to turbulent Milan-Geneva and long-haul Tokyo departures, these flights are not for the faint-hearted.
The skies demand vigilance, skill, and resilience from everyone aboard, highlighting the dramatic and often unpredictable nature of air travel.
The EDR measures turbulence intensity at a given spot, ranging from 0-100. The most turbulent flight path in the world is between Santiago, Chile and Santa Cruz, Bolivia, which had an average EDR of 17.5.
While such incidents are rare, chaotic moments in the sky can still occur. Passengers who get hurt are often those walking through the cabin or not wearing their seatbelts.
240
Number of severe turbulence events as reported by planemaker Airbus between 2014 and 2018Turbulence has many faces
There are several types and causes of in-flight turbulence. Turbulence is not a one-size-fits-all phenomenon. It comes in various forms, each with its unique challenges:
Wake Turbulence:
Generated by aircraft vortices from the wings of other planes.
Thermal (Convective) Turbulence:
Caused by the uneven heating of the Earth's surface, leading to rising warm air columns.
Frontal Turbulence:
Occurs when warm air is lifted by the sloping frontal surface of a cold air mass.
Mechanical Turbulence:
Created by friction between the air and the ground, influenced by irregular landscapes or man-made structures.
Thunderstorm Turbulence:
Resulting from the intense updrafts and downdrafts within storm systems.
Wind Shear:
A sudden change in wind speed and/or direction over a short distance.
Temperature Inversions:
Occur when a stable layer of warm air traps cooler air below, creating turbulent conditions at the boundary.
NTSB data
The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) declared turbulence-related airline accidents as the most common type.
From 2009 through 2018, turbulence was responsible for more than a third of reported airline accidents in the US, a 2021 NTSB study showed. Most incidents resulted in serious injuries, though aircraft damage was rare.
• The NTSB did not specify whether the turbulence was clear-air or weather-induced.
• Airbus reported 240 severe turbulence events between 2014 and 2018, with injuries occurring on 30 per cent of affected long-haul flights.
Turbulence and climate change
Climate change is known to affect jet streams. Some studies (see list below), suggest that we may face more turbulence in the future.
A 2023 study by the University of Reading reveals that climate change has significantly intensified clear air turbulence. The most notable increases have been observed over the US and North Atlantic, with Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic also experiencing substantial rises.
What studies show
Several studies have shown that climate change is leading to increased turbulence for aircraft. A 2023 study by the University of Reading found that severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55 per cent from 1979 to 2020.
This study indicated that the rise in turbulence is likely due to changes in wind speeds in the upper atmosphere caused by global warming, particularly affecting the jet streams. .
Another study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, reported similar findings.
It highlighted that the frequency and severity of clear-air turbulence have significantly risen due to climate change, affecting busy flight routes over the US, North Atlantic, Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic. This study underscores the increased risk posed by CAT, dangerous because it cannot be detected visually or by conventional radar.
The study concluded that global warming is causing more instability in the jet stream, the fast-flowing "river" of air that moves from west to east at high altitudes.
This instability is increasing the likelihood of encountering severe turbulence during flights, making air travel more challenging and potentially more hazardous. These findings collectively suggest that climate change is having a direct impact on flight safety by increasing the occurrence and intensity of turbulence, particularly CAT, which poses a significant risk to aircraft and passengers.
