Qatar’s move to restore full diplomatic relations with Iran, broken off since January 2016, is setting the cat among the pigeons. Doha’s move to send a Qatari ambassador to Tehran, who was withdrawn in solidarity with Saudi Arabia because of the ransacking of its embassy in the Iranian capital and consulate in Mashhad, is seen as a dangerous and provocative move that will only add fuel to the fire.
Restoration of full diplomatic relations between the two countries — never actually cut off but scaled down, and unlike that of Saudi Arabia — is seen as particularly dangerous as it increases Iran’s influence in the Gulf and the rest of the Middle East, which Riyadh has consistently warned about and sought to stem. The diplomatic restoration will very likely provide Iran with an “extra door” to meddle in the affairs of the region, as it has privately and sometimes openly sought to boast about. But in spite of this, Qatar regards its upgrading of relations with Iran as an attempt to influence an emerging power system in the region where it would seek to realign its relations and standing.
Everything you need to know about Qatar Crisis
Clearly, Qatar, now under embargo for the fourth month, and with no let-up mainly because of its intransigence, is now bolstering its relations with the very states and people that the anti-terror quartet of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt has been worried about. One of the original complaints by the anti-terror quartet is that Qatar has developed too close a relationship with Tehran for one’s comfort and it clearly needs to scale down that relationship because it is seen as one of the major sponsors of terrorism in Syria, Iraq and Yemen — not to mention its campaign to support terrorism in different Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia.
For Doha to make a 180-degree diplomatic turnaround is clearly beyond the pale, especially at a time when Saudi Arabia has been making diplomatic overtures with regard to facilitating Haj procedures and transportation facilities for Qatari pilgrims, which has become a complicated logistical exercise in the face of the standoff. It is Qatar that has clearly been politicising the Haj issue.
It’s not acceptable on the part of the Qatari leadership to say that the Haj issue should have been settled with the Qatari government and not with Shaikh Abdullah Al Thani, another member of the Qatari royal family, whose brother was ousted by the grandfather of the current emir in 1972. Shaikh Abdullah is merely a go-between and it is preposterous to claim that the Saudis are grooming him to take over Qatar, as claimed in some circles. It is simply banal to subscribe to such a line of thinking. This is because the Qatari state leadership tends to follow its own whims that border on the whimsical as the present emir is a product of “peaceful” machinations by his father, Shaikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, who himself had ousted his father in 1996.
In a sense, it’s a Qatari “merry-go-round”, which actually means that the anti-terror quartet shouldn’t be too worried about the latest moves by Doha, to upgrade its ties with Iran, for these are dictated by political interests that have a habit of wavering and circumventing themselves from time to time.
Unfortunately, the Qatar-Gulf standoff is not likely to end any time soon. The recent Qatari move to restore relations with Iran will not only be an attack on the sovereignty of the former but on the sovereignty of all Gulf Cooperation Council member states. Afterall, Iran is seeking its pound of the flesh. The sooner Doha realises this the better as it would be able to free itself from this self-imposed strangulation and disallow Iran to establish a wider sphere of influence over the Gulf and ride roughshod over its geography and territorial integrity.
Qatar must act sensibly. While its relation with Iran is economically dependent on the Pars gas field’s marine geography — that has accounted for most of its wealth — it must not go beyond that for that will only widen the chasm between Doha and its neighbours. Doha’s recent political courtship with Iran is yet another signal towards needless escalation in tension and distrust, when what it should have tried to achieve is setting the “Gulf House” in order.
Marwan Asmar is a commentator based in Amman. He has long worked in journalism and has a PhD in Political Science from Leeds University in the UK.
