What a year 2013 was! It was one of those years where high expectations and wide-eyed dreams came up empty and where the Arab Spring dream setbacks disillusioned millions in the Arab world.
2013 was the year the US was upstaged by the Russians, where the US government experienced shutdown of the federal government, embarrassing itself before a worldwide audience. It was the year where the US upset and provoked its allies in the Arabian Gulf, the Middle East and around the world. Its allies in the Gulf and the region were taken aback over the flippant US policy over Egypt, Syria and the year ended with the interim agreement with Iran over its nuclear programme, which was like adding insult to injury for US allies, whether in the GCC or in Turkey and Israel.The US managed in one move to upset its allies and embrace its foes. The US looked as if it was doing Iran’s bidding by allowing it a free hand in the region and not weakening it by attacking Syria.
There was public disagreement and criticism of the US policy from the Saudis who differed publicly with Washington and took to the media in western papers to voice their divergent views with the US. Going as far as threatening a “shift” in relations with Washington the Saudi Ambassador in London Prince Mohammad Bin Nawaf Bin Abdul Aziz, King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz’s nephew, taunted the US in a New York Times opinion article titled, Saudi Arabia will go it alone. He argued persuasively that “Recently, these relations [with the western partners] have been tested — principally because of differences over Iran and Syria. We believe that many of the West’s policies on both Iran and Syria risk the stability and security of the Middle East. This is a dangerous gamble, about which we cannot remain silent, and will not stand by idly.” He ended his article by saying: “We expected to be standing shoulder to shoulder without friends and partners who have previously talked so much about the importance of moral values in foreign policy... But this year, for all their talk of “red lines” when it counted, out partners have seemed all too ready to concede our safety and risks our region’s stability.”
The Saudis did not stop there, but feeling the US snub and dealing and wheeling covertly behind their backs with the Iranians in Muscat, over Iran’s nuclear programme embarked on a strategy to get back at the Americans. By strengthening their ties with the Russians where they footed a $2 billion (Dh7.34 billion) arms deal for Egypt and with the French in particular. The year ended with the French President Francois Hollande visiting Riyadh signing multi-billion dollars deals. The trade volume between the Riyadh and Paris doubled over the past decade to over $11 billion in 2013. It was telling as the Saudis pledged $3 billion to upgrade and improve the Lebanese Army capabilities — provided the weapons came from France. Were there messages for the Americans, Iranians and Hezbollah?
In 2003, the GCC states differed once again on the much discussed ‘Gulf Union’ project proposed and sponsored by the Saudis who were convinced as they are today that there is an urgent need for the GCC states to close ranks to deal effectively with the host of the challenges in the region. The Saudis see this as their responsibility to forge a strong and effective ‘Gulf Union’ to become the launching pad for a major realignment of new Arab security architecture or as Nawaf Obaid put it: “The nature of these responsibilities will ultimately entail a new collective Arab security framework led by the kingdom. Certainly, this shift away from western dependency and toward more locally-led interventions will take some time, but it is important and inevitable step…There is growing consensus that only through collective credible engagement can each assure its own survival.”
This year will be an interesting year to follow how far the Saudis are going to go to challenge the status quo relations with Washington and the end results of the Saudis’ assertive and bold foreign policy.
Last year, the hope of peaceful and orderly change in the Arab did not materialise in those Arab republics. 2013 was the year where the hope for orderly change and order were dashed. The Arab Spring came to an end in Egypt with the toppling and trying of the first civilian elected president Mohammad Mursi who was forced out of office on the anniversary of his election. It was the year where the Syrian ruler Bashar Al Assad had the audacity to gas his own people and crossed the international community and the US president’s Red Line with impunity and got away with murder.
It was the year where chaos and disorder ruled Libya, and political assassinations took place in Tunisia and Al Qaida bombings and US drones strikes occurred in Yemen.
The punishment for Al Assad’s bloodletting atrocities and carnage with countless massacres reached epic and morally unacceptable proportions. Almost 135,000 Syrians have been massacred, half of them in 2013 — the bloodiest year in the Syrian revolution. It was ironic that some leaders in the West believe that keeping Al Assad in office is a better outcome of the conflict, considering the alternative are the much dreaded hardline Islamists who are fighting among each other and with the Free Syrian Army and scaring off the Syrians and all others.
The US looked off balance and wavered over Syria to the consternation of its allies, especially after Al Assad dared to gas his own people. The Russians sprung into action with an outlandish proposal to rid Syria of its chemical arms’ stockpile. The Americans signed the proposal, upon the request of a beleaguered Obama. That proposal saved not only Al Assad, whose forces with his allies led by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah and other Shiites militias seem to be gaining the momentum on the battlegrounds, but also Obama from a humiliation in the US Congress over the authorisation to use of force against Al Assad for using chemical weapons against civilians. Obama was facing stiff resistance and heading towards defeat from an inward-looking Congress and constituencies weary over a decade of bloody and costly wars. The Russian lifeline to Obama dwarfed the US standing in world affairs, inflated the Russian stature and elevated Vladimir Putin to position of world leader and statesman.
It will be interesting to follow and monitor these events and developments to find out how these events play out on both the regional and international landscapes, where much of these phenomena and developments need to be addressed and come to fruition.
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is the chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/docshayji
