As Modi 3.0 tries to navigate the difficult world of a reduced mandate and coalition politics, crucial state elections coming up over the next couple of months will determine the political course of the BJP and the opposition. The first set of polls are taking place in September-October in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana.
Maharashtra and Jharkhand will follow and then the prestige battle for Delhi is due early next year.
For the BJP, these state polls are important to change the narrative of being hampered by being limited to 240 seats (well short of the majority of 272) in the Lok Sabha polls. Over the last few weeks, the Modi government has been forced to do U turns on some key issues thanks to pressure from a stronger opposition and allies.
The BJP needs some strong wins in these states to counter the narrative that they are on the back foot. For a resurgent opposition, it is imperative to do well in these polls to keep up their momentum.
So what is the state of play at the moment:
Jammu and Kashmir: These are the first assembly polls taking place in the erstwhile state (which now a union territory) in a decade. The elections will essentially be seen through the prism of the Modi government’s move to dilute Article 370 in 2019 and what people really think on the ground.
The BJP, which has been strong in Jammu, is facing a challenge this time. It doesn’t have any presence in the Kashmir Valley and this is unlikely to change. The National Conference is the dominant party and a pre poll alliance with the Congress has put the INDIA bloc in a formidable position.
However, with several smaller players also in the fray, including separatists, it will be an interesting contest where there could be a fractured mandate leading to more uncertainty.
Haryana: Having ruled the state for 10 years, there is a strong anti incumbency against the BJP in Haryana this time. Unemployment is a huge issue here. The Jat factor is also crucial in Haryana’s 90 seats and the BJP is facing the brunt of Jat anger. They make up about 27 per cent of the population.
The farmer agitation was a huge issue in the state and the BJP’s handling of these protests has not gone down well at all. While the Congress saw a resurgence in Haryana during the Lok Sabha polls, the party is plagued by infighting and factionalism which could cost them the state.
While top leaders are fighting it out among themselves, there has been a rush of ticket seekers to the Congress. How they balance this out will be crucial.
Maharashtra: The Election Commission’s decision to delink the Maharashtra polls from J&K and Haryana lead to a huge outcry in the state. The EC however cited the need for more security and the polls will take place in October-November, with the term of the assembly due to finish in late November. This is one state where the stakes are really high for all sides.
Maharashtra has seen some of the ugliest politics in recent years with governments being brought down, splits being engineered in parties, legislators brazenly crossing sides. There has been much drama and analysing and predicting outcomes has been tough.
The opposition INDIA alliance of the Shiv Sena UBT, Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) has been upbeat about its prospects, as the BJP and its allies won only 17 out of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats this time. The INDIA bloc won 30 seats. A new survey done by ‘India Today’ suggests the Congress has the edge over the BJP in the assembly polls.
Jharkhand: This is yet another state where the contest is fierce. The India Today survey gives the NDA an edge but Jharkhand is expected to be a tough fight. The long incarceration of Chief Minister Hemant Soren in an alleged money laundering case could play out on the ground as a sympathy factor.
A split in Soren’s party, the JMM, however has been a setback with senior leader and former Chief Minister Champai Soren joining the BJP. The BJP is also hoping that corruption allegations against ruling party MLAs dents their vote along with anti incumbency.
In the Lok Sabha polls, the NDA’s tally came down while the INDIA bloc went up. The question is whether they can sustain this for the state polls.
